We are getting ready to head back home from NYC, but I wanted to get you a quick view of gold’s ratios to other asset markets and see if we can draw some conclusions.
You know that I am going to call what I see as opposed to wave the ‘go gold!’ pompoms, but what I see is an intact ‘Gold vs.’ picture. As it stands now, I see this as a potential negative divergence to the stock market as long as gold avoids breaking down vs. these items. It has had every reason to break down this week but as of now at least, it has not.
Gold-Commodities is still intact, with the exception of gold-palladium and gold-silver. Gold-silver in the bottom panel is key, as it was the first mover in breaking down. It has bounced back to the moving average. A hold below that resistance could renew the precious metals and keep a risk ‘on’ trade going for broad markets. A break above would be a warning on many asset markets.
Gold vs. Stock Markets is surprisingly intact. It is surprising to me anyway, because I was not able to watch the market much over the last couple of days and it felt worse than what I see below.
Gold vs. Currencies is intact as well, with a neutral vs. Yen.
Gold vs. Bonds is also little changed and intact, implying there has been no great resurgence in confidence in monetary policy makers, despite August’s jawbone fest (and Yellen due tomorrow).
We’ll clip it there, simply offering observations on these pictures. Not having watched things closely the last 2 days I don’t feel I am qualified to go into a lot of detail. Indeed, you may know more details than I at this point. But you know what they say about pictures. A thousand words…