A quick run down on multi-markets…
S&P 500 is in a downtrend and has dropped as expected toward a test of the August low. Today’s candle and those of other markets is something of a Hammer, which can signal a short-term bounce attempt. In a downtrend, sell or short the bounce is the rule. Resistance from 1960 up to around 1980 should cap any would-be bounce attempts or else we would need to revise the current narrative.
because the Euro and USD are unclear and any play on Europe would need an at least stable US and global stock environment and a definitively bearish Euro. We still have a potential bounce target of 120 on the Euro, but in the big picture USD is bullish and Euro bearish. Maybe a trade on Europe is well out on the horizon somewhere, but it is not here and not now.
Gold made a strong move today. We had the next resistance area at about 1180, where the declining SMA 200 resides. What will be key in amping up a bull case on gold is to make a higher high above 1170. If that were to happen, a series of higher highs and higher lows since July would be intact. I cannot stress how important it is for gold get to or through 1180. Even if it fails there and drops anew, the future implication of an intact series of high highs, higher lows should be respected from a would-be bull’s perspective.
Silver has still not made a move vs. gold and that remains a problem for commodities, financial markets in general and potentially the miners as well. That is because the implication of a rising gold-silver ratio is that liquidity is draining from the global system.
Remember that we have a target low-mid 80’s to 90 for the gold-silver ratio by a monthly chart that shows long-term areas that the ratio has been capped at historically. Here is the daily chart’s status. It is still consolidating, but if it takes another pop higher the pressure could really visit financial markets. The daily trend remains bullish.
We reviewed the charts of GDX and GDXJ earlier in the day. All that can be said of them is… and I know some of you are tired of reading this, but they are only bouncing; not in any sort of bull trend or supported by any real TA over anything but day trader time frames.
CRB index is in a downtrend because it is below both the 200 and 50 day averages, each of which is burrowing southward. Post-August is a bounce only as currently indicated.
Crude Oil is better, but still only bouncing. WTI has dropped below 44 a few times and held that level as support quite stubbornly. So wouldn’t you think 44 is an important level to the short-term case? Me too.