NFTRH+; India

A subscriber who has a history as an India fund manager was kind enough to pass along (actually, remind me of…) a couple more symbols of interest (to go along with Nifty 50 fund INDY and MSCI India fund INDA).  These are the Wisdom Tree India earnings fund (EPI) and the Market Vectors India Small Cap fund (SCIF).  These are presented for your consideration and further research.

Upon looking at the charts, it is SCIF fund that caught my eye and so, gets an NFTRH+ write up.

First, like the other India ETFs today, it is dropping toward/to its 200 day moving average.  That makes this a timely update as these are the types of instances long-term India bulls would like to accumulate.

scif

The chart above does not look great with MACD triggered down, RSI red and a gap at 45.

However, the weekly looks interesting as it forms a bowl pattern/consolidation.  This has the makings of a potential Cup & Handle.

scif2

Dialing this weekly view out further, this would-be ‘Cup’ could actually be the right side shoulder of an Inverted H&S (IHS) bottoming pattern.  This would not be confirmed unless/until the dotted neckline is broken.  But it is an interesting view.

scif3

Once again this NFTRH+ update will be emailed to the entire subscriber base because it is a macro market situation and not a stock chart.  So I think it has value as a regular update as well.

If you are an India bull (your own fundamental research is required), then a buy from 47 down to 45 might work out well over time.  45 would break the Bowl on the 2nd chart, but a quick drop and recovery could happen while still maintaining the Bowl.  A sustained hold below the Bowl could be used as a stop loss if you are a trader.

SCIF:

Buy Target:  46 (+ to 47, – to 45)

Sell Target:  Small (right side) bowl/shoulder would target 62, Large IHS would target around 80 if neckline is broken at a later date.  An exact price cannot be put on the neckline because over time it will have risen if the IHS remains in play.  But we would likely update in the future (and please request, if not).

Stop Loss:  Very subjective, given that this is a macro investment theme.  Traders probably should focus on stocks.  But since below 45 would make a ‘lower low’ on a daily chart, a drop and hold below 45 could be used as a stop loss.

A reminder that chart based NFTRH+ updates are just trade setup ideas, which may not be revisited as the parameters are already noted. They are meant as a starting point for further research if interested. Fundamentals-based ideas are also provided for your further research only. I will not personally buy every item highlighted and will sometimes sell – without prior notice (because this takes time and resource away from NFTRH’s main functions) – any item that I do buy, below target, which is something I often do as a trader. Also please be aware that I am not a fundamental stock analyst.