NFTRH; Speaking of Russia

This started out as an NFTRH+ update, but since any stance with the Russian stock market is a longer-term proposition, I decided it was best as a regular update for anyone who might be interested.  We’ll keep NFTRH+ on mostly shorter-term scenarios (INTC being an exception), often involving US stocks (and precious metals and commodities equities when they are in setups and when the macro fundamentals indicate a good backdrop).

As you know NFTRH updates the big picture progress of the MV Russia ETF (RSX) each week in a fairly mechanical way.  Today I want to dial in a bit after reading (and agreeing with) a guest post at the site from Chris Hunter, who works with Bill Bonner.

As you may have noticed, I prefer buying Asia (TDF) and the Emerging Markets (EMF) through Templeton because these funds are actively managed by Mark Mobius and in these markets that I don’t understand as well as the US market, I tend to like active management.  So the charts used here are of the TRF fund, which also includes other Eastern European items, with Russia making up 58% of the portfolio.  A complete summary of the fund is found here at CEFConnect.

Of note, and in line with Chris Hunter’s value view of Russia is the NAV/Price history of TRF:

nav.price

The current discount is -11.49%.  Investors are being paid to be Buffett-like, i.e. brave when others are fearful.  There have been times in the past when excitement has significantly driven the price to NAV.  The above is a picture of when value investors buy.

Yet this update is really more about the Russian market than TRF itself.  There are much more liquid vehicles (inc. RSX) for those who need volume.  But since I am considering TRF personally, we’ll use those charts for the update.

The daily chart is bearish and rolling over below the 50 and 200 MA’s.  The support area noted fills a gap and all things being equal on the macro, where I would like to initiate a position, potentially to be held for a long-term trade.

trf

The weekly chart shows a long sideways trend and potential support here at the current level.  Usually the daily chart controls the short-term, so I think it’s got a good chance to get to the next support level below 13.  Both charts are in agreement on that.

trf.wk

This being a long-term proposition, a scale in approach is acceptable as well.  Understand that an idea like this can take years to play out and I have got to evaluate myself before I take a position.  As a trader I can tend to out think (or double think) myself as pointed out in this post about NFTRH+ idea BBRY.

But I want to bring up valid ideas from around the global spectrum for your further consideration/research when they come on my radar.  This may or may not be revisited in the future.  It will depend on my time and/or interest level.