NFTRH; Key ETF Charts

ETF updates are a snapshot of current technicals, not a comprehensive technical review.

GLD is forming a Symmetrical Triangle (normally continuation, in this case bearish).  Gold is positive this morning, but needs to break its Sym-Tri to the upside and get above the moving averages to make a bullish signal.


SLV can start to talk bullish if it gets above 19.25.  Until then bottom callers are talking their book.  That is major support and could one day be looked back upon as a big buying opportunity.  But the ETF update looks for signals and this one still sees a bear signal below the moving averages.  MACD is moderately constructive, however.


GDX is still bearish below the 50 and 200 day moving averages, which are turning down again.  All I ask for is a break above the MA’s and we will open a bullish case.  In the big picture it has paid to be patient and in the context of the big bottoming potential and the longer term, we might continue not to worry about catching an exact bottom because if these are big (better part of a year) bottoming patterns, the bull market that comes out of them is going to give ample opportunity to get aboard.


SIL is grappling at support.  There is no sign yet that the short term downtrend is over.


GDX-GLD ratio (HUI-Gold)  is still a negative indicator on the sector.


DBC broke down from the bear flag and then changed its mind.  It is neutral and would need to cross back above resistance to get bullish again.


USO shows why DBC went back up.  USO did not get the bear flag memo and broke upward from its flag.  This is neutral to bullish.  Important resistance is shown.


UNG broke hard through support (now resistance).  It is going bearish pending long term breakout support.  That is either a great buying opportunity for gas bulls or a nail in the coffin.


DBA broke support (now resistance) and is quickly going bearish.  Evidently hedgies are trying to momo bull oil now.  Classic mixed bag commodity rotation going on?


TLT is still mostly bullish but also quite far above the MA 50’s.  For a bond fund, that is somewhat over bought.


SPY is at all time highs and bullish.


QQQ is at important resistance, below which the bear case is still on.


SMH bounced hard but stopped right at the short term trend line, for now at least making another lower high.  We continue to view the April high and the 10 year breakout line as critical parameters to bull or bear.


KBE-SPY ratio continues as a negative leading indicator for US stocks.


EZU is still technically bullish but in a wedge, which often resolves to the downside.


EEM is close to making the signal.


The weekly view adds perspective…


Also EEM vs. SPY, which could be a candidate to turn up in a meaningful way in 2014.  This is speculative but should probably be put in rotation now for tracking.


FXI got above the MA 50’s and is trying to validate the lower probability Inverted H&S scenario we drew in last week.  There will be stiff resistance above at MA 200.


Bottom Line

  • Precious Metals are up in pre-market but have work to do to put on bullish signals.
  • Commodities are a mixed bag.  The bag is changing as Nat Gas and Agricultural top out and oil pops.  But the ‘mixed’ theme remains the same.
  • Stock Markets are mixed as well.  There are bearish signals below the surface of US markets and in certain momentum leaders.  Yet Dow, SPX and Transports are able to print very bullish headlines in the media.  The VIX is sound asleep and that is not bullish.  Europe remains mostly bullish, India is flat out bullish and Asia and Emerging are trying to make bullish signals.  Stay tuned.