NFTRH Update, Precious Metals

Very simply, the October low was 211 for HUI.  Other measures, like the GDX and GDXJ ETFs have already made lower lows.  But today HUI dropped below and is making an attempt to hold 211.


Of equal importance, gold is making an in-day reversal and attempting to hold the neckline noted in this morning’s ETF update.  Also, silver bounced to green.  By the way, the CoT data improved last week and there is very little ‘dumb money’ in the precious metals now.

This could very well be another failed short-term attempt.  They have been abundant throughout the bear.  But given the weekly bottoming stance (whether ‘W’ or IHS), I am willing to personally step up again with initial buys.  You know my thoughts for conservative investors; they should wait for daily signals to trigger bullish, well higher unless they can tolerate a final capitulation.

For myself, there is AKG selling below net cash again and TGD sporting a forward PE of 7 (with insider buying).  So I say, okay Gah, give it shot on a few of these things.

The stop loss on this action would obviously be a failure of today’s in-day reversal.  I will not tolerate a hard dive to HUI 168.  Rather, I would try to capitalize on it.

My preference continues to be for a punch in the gut, where we just ‘know’ the bottom is happening.  But that may have been in June, with all of the subsequent grinding action an extended and painful continuation of a bottoming process.

I just wanted to give an update on what I am doing for with respect to my own trading.

[edit]  @ 3:05 US Eastern the would-be reversal is not looking stellar.  Since I mentioned AKG and TGD (which I did buy), I will not sell them until near market close if it looks like the precious metals are not a ‘go’ today.  I may also hold them and the two other PM stocks I own (one of which is KDX, as noted in NFTRH 265).  I have not decided yet.  The portfolios are predominantly non-PM stocks and I may decide to bear with a couple of these.