Well the theme is that gold is opposite to the bull mania and ‘risk on’ environment so well crafted by policy making. The title says “fun house mirror” because those things distort sizes of images.
Another theme is that a cyclical thing (as opposed to the secular thing that ended in 2000) is in play now. As such, I wanted to note the similarity between a pattern in the daily (more compact) view of the SPY-GLD ratio to a weekly (longer term) view of a similar pattern in nominal GLD throughout the 2007-2009 financial disaster.
From NFTRH 265’s Wrap Up segment:
“We are well aware however, that gold measured against the US stock market is broken technically. This must be factored, as it may need to run to a blow off condition.”
The daily pattern in SPY-GLD targets 1.52. That could be an area to start looking for some changes and perhaps even a short term blow off. Remember, we are talking about shorter time frames here. The pattern is 3-4 months long.
Here is the weekly GLD pattern, which is about 1.5 years long. The blow off was to Q4, 2009 before a downside reaction.
We should make no conclusions on what type of reaction may come about in SPY-GLD (interim or terminal), if one happens at all, but the chart gives a point (1.52) where we can watch for a reaction based on the pattern’s measurement.