With the precious metals up in pre-market and US stock futures down after political players did the predictable, it is notable that these markets seem to be going opposite the news. This goes against the current technical trends but really, anyone buying the stock market yesterday because of an impending debt deal would have been buying a classic ‘sell the news’ setup. Precious metals are ‘buying the news’, but have technical hurdles as follows.
Today’s update can give some markers as to when the bounce in precious metals would become technically notable. On the macro fundamental and psychological side it is interesting that gold is not getting hit with the Ugly Stick on the supposedly happy news.
Gold is bouncing to the equivalent of GLD’s black downtrend line and EMA 20 (light
orange green line) in pre-market. A break of those would be a minor hint and a break (and hold) of the 50 day averages would be a significant technical move. As of now, GLD is below these levels and MACD down, and in a bear trend.
SLV is also at the equivalent of its EMA 20 in ‘pre’. Just above is resistance by the 50 day averages and the downtrend line. We’d continue to look at silver as a leader in any coming rally. For now MACD is down and SLV is on a bear signal.
GDX has qualified for a ‘higher low’ double bottom to the June bottom, but this would not be known until it first clears the EMA 20 (currently 24.48) and then turns MACD up and gets above the 50 day averages. GDX is still on a bear signal.
SIL is in a downtrend, MACD down and is on a bear signal. Same general status as GDX.
DBC continues to look interesting above the 50 day averages. It is on a neutral signal but if MACD goes green (zero+) with price above the 50’s, a bull signal would be generated. Here we recall the critical big picture status of the CCI commodity index above 500. This would be critical not only for commodities, but the inflation-deflation debate.
SPY is above the 50 day averages, uptrend line and is MACD green. Still on a bull signal.
EZU continues to out perform over on an intermediate basis. People are falling all over themselves trying to buy Europe up to our 3000+ target on the Euro STOXX 50. EZU is on a strong bull signal and over bought.
EEM is also on an intermediate bull signal. Weekly charts you will recall tell the story of a bounce rather than a new bull market until important resistance (to be managed in NFTRH) is exceeded.
FXI is in an uptrend above the 50 day averages, is MACD crossed down but zero+. Watch FXI as a leader to global rally continuation or possible failure.