NFTRH Update, HUI, GLD & SLV

Some in-day micro management for anyone interested.  On days like this we are reminded that NFTRH will not be the service that calls out bottoms for you on most occasions because it is a cyclical bear market and a cautious stance has been in effect.

So for the next bottom (including the current potential bottom retest scenario) please accept my apologies in advance for not having called it.  A cautious approach has worked better than a brave approach for well over 200 HUI points, but one day it will prove wrong.  I only tend to get really brave when big negative events that rip at your gut happen.  Short of that, I need technicals.

Okay, on to the current state of HUI’s potential double bottom scenario.

hui

A similar gap up happened off of the early July retest of the June low.  It stopped around the EMA 20 (light green), consolidated and then went higher.  Today HUI is in that same area and that level (around 230) has lateral resistance as well as a trend line.

I hold a small position in miners with 2 explorers and two producers.  I will be ready to increase this exposure if HUI either makes a bullish looking consolidation as it did in July or climbs above 230 and holds there.  Also, this is assuming the macro (incl. treasury yield spreads, which remain constructive) looks good for the sector as well.  Meanwhile, this will only be classified as a bounce until the real work gets done at the (blue) 50 day moving averages.

gld

Gold is making a good move today in breaking the wedge.  The 50 day averages are just above.  Those are the tell-tale markers.  So, while missing the first burst in the casino (if indeed this is real), my insurance policy would be doing just fine if it is a real move.  Speaking as a human and not a chart guy, I really want to guard against casino mentality now.

slv

Watch the would-be precious metals leader.  Silver is still below the 50 day averages.

Bottom Line

If this is a bottom, the analysis missed it as far as a call goes.  Furthermore, for the better part of a year now I have been aware that NFTRH would likely not call THE bottom in the metals and I liked that mode of operation just fine.  I still do.

What we will do is look to confirm a new trend if/when applicable for people who wish to establish a safer entry.  As a bottom feeder I will be poking around here to add positions if things look constructive on shorter time frames, but as noted to this point better bull signals will be a cross of the MACD lines and prices breaking trend lines and 50 day moving averages.