I don’t believe today’s precious metals bounce is anything because we are talking about a market that is fixating on scrambling politicians and what ever scheme they will cook up to extend the nation’s ‘Wimpy’ lifestyle… “I’ll gladly pay you on Tuesday for a Hamburger today.”
That said, I have let the work in NFTRH 260 sink in and I have reflected on some of the hard questions that were examined. Speaking as a lowly individual within this casino, I remain a gold bull. You know that is true with my perception of gold’s value. But I am not done as a speculator either (despite the big picture bear signal that I must respect as a TA guy).
A subscriber asked me in an email yesterday what my gut says. My gut says that players are being put off sides through heavy handed policy making and that though patience will be required, the plan that had called for a hard bounce (with nothing more to be read into it for now) is still in the cards.
The daily chart shows all those gaps on the left side that are likely to fill. A gap filling rally would likely start with every last gold bug having given up hope. Are we near that point yet? It seems we are getting there.
So I’ll be watching for a bottom retest, which could include a higher or lower low to the June low (206) and yes, the 170(ish) downside target is in play as well. That could be a final horror event to launch a rally back toward the ‘375 neckline’ (350-375 target) that was created with the bad technical breakdown from what turned out to be a 2010-2012 topping pattern.
Again, I think today and any day that is controlled by the market’s perceptions of these scurrying little schemers in Washington is bogus. But I wanted to give you a note after I let #260 simmer in my own mind for a while.