Do not take this the wrong way. I am plenty beared up at the moment, at least for a hard test of the low 300’s per current analysis; and potentially for much lower levels.
I do not use log scale charts because I prefer the reality of the picture that linear charts show, which are actual increases and decreases, not percentage adjusted illusions. But many chartists use log scale, especially where trend lines are concerned. Here is an alternate view of the monthly HUI in log scale.
Again, I own no gold stocks and the failure to get back above the 375 area probably means our low 300’s target is loaded. The 50% bull market retrace is in the 330’s, which conveniently intersects the lower trend line on this log scale chart. Had we done the chart in linear format, the trend line would be much lower, in the low 200’s I believe.
So this is just a picture for our future reference that supports the A-B-C bull market shakeout scenario at around a 50% Fib retrace level. I do not particularly favor this scenario but I’ll be damned if they are going to get me all beared up when I should be thinking like a contrarian. So we can prepare bullishly, just as bearishly.
To consider buying I want to see point ‘C’ come about in a bloodbath of “bull market is over!!’ hysteria with the 50% Fib area generally holding along with this trend line. But again, I have not regularly used linear charts in quite a while and do not favor trend line analysis as it is. So that’s a caveat emptor I’d say.
The above is for your reference in decision making.