Post-FOMC The first line of the FOMC statement yesterday was what I assume they wanted us to pay the most attention to. It was packaged with a view of moderate…
'Close to the vest' (AKA not leaning too far one way or another, AKA cash) remains the play until the FOMC meeting and its aftermath are cleared. This is because…
US Stocks
This headline says it all. Playing its assertion straight, we acknowledge that what was a bubble in asset market supporting policy could morph into a bubble and blow off (i.e. mania) in stocks.
As usual we will seek to add more to a bullish gold stock discussion, such as Treasury yields and their spreads, gold’s performance to the stock market and even the US dollar, which is very over done to the upside. All of these and more will play in to an intermediate to long-term bullish case.
US Stock Market
S&P 500 is +5% today in pre-market and I have not covered my short position on SPY, although for NFTRH+ purposes, the preliminary bearish trading target was 206 (SPY closed yesterday at 204.98). So that trade is complete.
I expect SPX to eventually move down to the support zone at 2000 +/-, where the decision would then be made as to whether or not we are going to test lower levels. So interim bounces could be additional shorting opportunities, as was Monday’s little joy fest.
Employment for February is +295,000 and unemployment is down to 5.5%. The US dollar rocketed upward and more importantly, so too did short-term interest rates (esp. in relation to long-term…
Crude oil has bumped back above the MA 50 and bears watching here. In this morning’s update it was noted that commodities are not interesting until there is a reason for interest. This is a preliminary one.
US Stock Market
Nasdaq hit 5000, market sentiment became over bullish to an extreme and yesterday was a down day. Indexes put a tail on their candles and closed above the low of the previous day. SPX was the worst potential offender of the major indexes yesterday. Had it closed below Monday’s low we’d have noted that as short-term bearish.
I have positions in both hedged and unhedged Europe, as you know. This was due to the (thus far incorrect) view that the USD would correct and the Euro bounce.…
Admin Notes Doing a freer flowing 'market update' segment mid-week works better for me than the more rigid ETF updates we had been doing and I hope it works better…
Amidst an economic backdrop in the US that continues to very gently decelerate, we have a celebration of what was perceived by the market as a dovish Fed. Anxiety had…
A brief update as I am on a mini getaway in NYC and will be hitting the road shortly. TIP-TLT has continued upward and broken above the MA 50. The…
A very simple one here for anyone interested in trading a massively popular tech stock. Remember, we are managing an over valued stock market that could be flirting with a…
Several of the smaller gold stocks I follow are making similar patterns by daily charts. They are shown below for your review. We have been viewing the correction as still…