NFTRH; More Thoughts on the Bull Case
It is a mixed messages market. With all the bearish indicators, we have had some fairly severe downside in several momentum related indexes. This begs the question ‘was that it?’ with regard to ‘the correction’?
It is a mixed messages market. With all the bearish indicators, we have had some fairly severe downside in several momentum related indexes. This begs the question ‘was that it?’ with regard to ‘the correction’?
ETF updates are a snapshot of current daily technicals, not a comprehensive technical review.
We have talked about what is negative for the US stock market. From the signal in the banks vs. S&P 500 to a young uptrend in long-term T bonds vs. the S&P 500. Here is the 2011-2014 market leading BKX-SPX in breakdown mode.
Throw in a bearish divergence in the Equity Put/Call ratio, an elevated Gold-Silver ratio right at resistance and Junk bond vs. Treasury/Investment Grade and the signs of a bearish market are not only there, they have manifested in some pretty good downside in the growth and momentum areas.
But aside from the Dow and Tranny already noted, there are other things that bears should pay attention to, starting as we often do with the Semiconductor index.
ETF updates are a snapshot of current technicals, not a comprehensive technical review.
The latest data from Bloomberg shows yields declining in gold’s favor today as the short end (2’s & 5’s) drop in yield faster than the long end. That is a bump up in the curve.
Today was quite impressive for the bulls. A public post at the site showed the SOX coming right to its trend line. I day traded LSCC for a good profit today and would you believe I actually had to remind myself to take the profit? Seeing the SOX at the trend line helped get me going, after letting some profits turn to losses by not being decisive in this market.
A piece at 321gold.com by the man who "was way ahead of my time in forecasting the rebound in Lithium and Graphite" prompted me to look at old friend LIT,…
With NFTRH 290’s 29 pages, we did not get to the gold macro fundamentals segment this week. So I want to put up a brief update to go over a few charts.
Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) was instigated by a credit induced collapse of the US financial system and perpetuated in December of 2008 by desperate financial policy makers as a fix to problems they created in the first place.
In reality, it is simply an epic distortion of normal economic signals that cleaned up the mess created by previous policy distortions (like the commercial credit bubble of the Greenspan era) by systematically (5+ years and running) main lining new distortions into the system.
So in addition to this picture, which could one day hang in a monetary museum with the title ‘Grandma and Her Savings Account Bail Out Wealthy Asset Owners’, let’s take a walk down memory lane and marvel at some other pictures created by this policy…
Note: To keep unwanted clutter out of the in-boxes of those not interested in trade ideas NFTRH+ updates are no longer being emailed. They are posted at the site and accessible using the password for the current week. On Monday an NFTRH+ idea was presented for the NDX.
*Note, I am going to post NFTRH+ dry runs at the site using the password for the week, but will not send a direct email, so as not to clutter the in boxes of those who are not interested.
A post was made at the site with thoughts about any Ukraine inspired bullishness in the precious metals. You know my stance by now. I don't like it. In light…
With silver heading to a break down or break out decision in the coming weeks and with its price down hard today, those bullish on silver and looking for buying opportunity could be buying today. It is hard to buy silver now, and that is probably the point.
A reminder that below is a snapshot of current ETF status, not a comprehensive technical review.