Key ETF charts are a snapshot to current technicals, not comprehensive technical analysis.
GLD bumped above the lower end of resistance yesterday and is support for any continuing S/T rally activity. The big test is in the 123 to 125 area and the nose of the former Symmetrical Triangle.
Silver continues to lead gold and that is generally a positive. The ratio is sneaking above the MA 50’s, RSI is over 50 and AROON just went green.
Similarly (to the INTC idea), a smaller yet high quality Semiconductor company is LSCC. It has a valuation that is ahead of most, due to its quality status and solid…
I remind you that any NFTRH+ trades are your responsibility solely and these trades may not be revisited any time soon if at all. They are simply ideas for you…
ETF daily charts are a snapshot of current technicals, not a comprehensive technical review.
GLD has lost support after spilling out of the Symmetrical Triangle. Last week it was at the 62% Fib retrace and this week that is in the rear view window. Still bearish.
The following is one of a wide range of analytical topics covered in NFTRH 293’s 35 pages this week, much of which is straight ahead technical analysis. But the T Bond market is usually central to an overall macro view at any given time. This segment is not meant to provide actionable direction (other than perhaps to prepare for a potential rise in T bonds yields), it is meant to dig into the mechanics beneath the financial markets in an effort to have people consider that there is much more going on with markets than simple nominal TA or conventional fundamental analysis (PE ratios, growth metrics, reported economic data, etc.) can account for.
US Treasury Bonds
Yields on long-term Treasuries have continued to decline in line with our view that was contrary the ‘Great Rotation’ (out of bonds) hype. The [30-year] especially is now close to support and the next play seems like it could be rising yields and declining T bonds.
The 30-year ‘Continuum’ view above makes the simple case that players had to be put offside believing in the ‘Great Rotation’ at 4% yields. The nearly half-year decline since then has now satisfied the chart as yields have come to our 3.1% to 3.2% target range, where there is support.
Well, Loretta Mester looks a little hawkish anyway. She also looks a little like... To which I'd refer back to my first public article ever written back in the quaint…
GDX made two high volume down days and is bouncing. This chart attempts to gives short term parameters and technical perspective.
This chart shows HUI dropping through the 205 parameter today. While it is technically at support (and getting sufficiently over sold) as you know, without fundamental incentive, I am not near the view I had in Q4 2008 (buy!). No way, no how. Not without a fundamental case that is engaged and measurable. This update then is simply a technical status check on HUI for those interested.
“The real issue is that the Fed has expanded its tool kit so dramatically…” –Andrew Huszar
In line with our theme of outlandish and immoral (in my opinion) Fed policy a former Fed official calls QE a backdoor bailout of Wall Street, which anyone with two functioning brain cells knows to be the case. The Andrew Huszar Op/Ed (Wall Street Journal) Confessions of a Quantitative Easer is I suppose old news, but it illustrates what we have been hammering on for so long now; that Fed policy is serving to pump the stock market and pump up the wallets of asset owners.
QE gets about 10 times the notoriety of ZIRP, but I’ll still maintain that it is this evil tool in the Fed’s ‘tool kit’ that is the main and continuing blight on the system as it not only rewards asset owners and speculators, but punishes those least able to speculate due to limited funds.
Please review this chart again and behold the rigged market. Anyone arguing that the bull market in US stocks is normal is being intellectually dishonest. Yet like agent Mulder I want to believe in the healthy bull story*, but I have to believe the data that has drawn the lines on the chart above.
ETF updates are meant as a snapshot of the current technical situation, not a comprehensive technical review.
HUI is coming to 205, as anticipated. That is the key support zone to a big picture bottoming stance.
Many people would consider a drop in the S&P 500 to the 1550-1600 area to be a bad thing. But if the bull is real, and if a secular bull market truly has been created out of manipulation of the T bond market (QE’s bond buying and ZIRP’s 0% rates) then a pullback to test that zone would be normal, would it not? It would feel bad but in reality a successful test of the big breakout would launch the grand new bull. SPX has to drop down to test support sooner or later, doesn’t it?
Well no, it doesn’t because the other side of the coin in the post’s title is ‘When Good is Bad’, meaning that an upside blow off in markets – if that is what is fomenting – would be very bad, as in ‘Silver 2011’ bad, for the stock market with a successful test of support unlikely. That is because a manic blow off would be a terminal event.
As has been the case often lately, the precious metals are positive in pre-US open. These have tended to be fleeting positive vibes, but we should keep the technical parameters in view nonetheless because a) you don’t want to buy (or at least hold) a sucker bounce and b) just maybe the forces of right and good ;-) will one day break out of this funk. So we should stay tuned up on what constitutes bull and bear in the precious metals.