NFTRH; Key ETF Charts

ETF daily charts are a snapshot of current technicals, not a comprehensive technical review.

GLD has lost support after spilling out of the Symmetrical Triangle.  Last week it was at the 62% Fib retrace and this week that is in the rear view window.  Still bearish.


SLV also lost support.  17.75 was the 2013 low and now that becomes the key parameter.  SLV is still bearish.


GDX clings to the important support parameter (equiv. HUI 205).  It is either bear flagging or finding support in preparation to rally.  Technically bearish, but this support level is critically important to any near term case.


SIL is in a positive divergence to silver in not making new lows to December.  It is also still bearish.


GLD vs. DBC and USO shows the ‘real’ price of gold still languishing (GLD-DBC) and an important gold mining fundamental indicator making new lows to the December lows (GLD-USO).  These are still a non-starter for gold’s fundamentals and flat out bad for the miners’ fundamentals, respectively.  Ref. the big picture view of Gold vs. CCI, which we noted at potential point ‘4’ in NFTRH 293.  Point ‘4’ is a potential support point for the ‘real’ price of gold, but the ratio has not yet shown any signs of turning up.


10yr-2yr yield spread remains bearish for gold though is trying to make some higher lows.  Unfortunately, it also made a lower high.  Ref. the big picture view, which we noted in NFTRH 293.  It needs to turn up for a favorable indication on gold.


GDX vs. GLD is back in the support zone after briefly breaking below.  This (and HUI-Gold) should be watched closely because its direction (up or down from here) will be indicative of the sector’s direction.


DBC broke down from the bear flag we noted last week.  It also lost short term support.  A bearish looking pattern and fairly ugly chart.  This becomes very bearish below the noted support level.


DBA continues to unwind all that speculative momentum and remains very bearish.


USO popped above and dropped back below resistance.  It remains mostly bullish, pending this resistance.


UNG is neutral above support and below resistance.


URA made a big bounce and got hammered at resistance.  This is bearish though potentially making a double bottom.


SPY is bullish but over bought and the O/B is coming on relatively low volume.


QQQ is also over bought and right at important resistance.


SMH chose its direction and it was up.  It is now over bought on a declining volume trend.  It is about as high as it gets above the MA 50’s.  The 10yr breakout is our big picture determinant on the bull market’s blow off potential, possibly after any coming ‘over bought’ corrective activity.


XTN (Transports),another momentum leader, is also bullish but over bought.


KBE-SPY continues its leadership breakdown.  If not yet a negative indicator for the overall stock market, it could indeed be a sign that long term interest rates are going to start rising again (from the support levels we have noted).  Banks favor higher long term rates.


TLT made a lower short term low, but can still be interpreted as being in a rising channel.  If and when interest rates find support as expected, TLT would eventually break down.


TIP vs. TLT continues to hang around at a support zone.  We will watch for any breakdown in T bonds (up in yields) to see if it carries a ‘rising inflation expectations’ element, which so far is not the case.


EZU is still bullish.


EWG is a quality leader over there.  This is the ETF roughly correlating to the DAX, which was noted in NFTRH 293.  Bullish and in blue sky.


EWP is a low quality leader over there.  PIIGS member Spain has led the charge back to risk ‘ON’.  It is bullish but in a potentially bearish rising wedge.  Spanish stocks and especially bonds are of little interest other than as a proxy for Europe’s risk appetite, which as of this moment is strong.  Spain, unlike Germany, is nowhere near blue sky with resistance (by long term charts) aplenty the higher it goes.


EEM continues to look constructive on the daily view.  Ref. the bigger picture view in NFTRH, which has not yet proven the bull case.


FXI apparently took us seriously after we imagined an Inverted H&S a few weeks ago.  It is bullish but starting to get over bought already.


Bottom Line

  • Precious Metals remain bearish.  That is a fact.  Further, no fundamental case has yet emerged other than the usual media stuff about all the money the Fed has pumped into the system, Indian elections and what have you.  Well, that Fed money is still working toward desired ends (the economy) as of 8:20 US Eastern Time on June 4, 2014 and supply/demand analysis has not worked consistently for nearly 3 years.  The story could turn on a dime (GOFO went negative before recently creeping back above zero and as we have reviewed, public opinion and CoT are heading in the right direction, especially for silver), but as of now nothing has changed technically or in the macro funda.  We will follow the progress as always, as long as the big picture technicals and fundamentals paint the current phase as a potential bottoming process.
  • Commodities remain a mixed bag and the bag is getting heavier.
  • Stock Markets remain the bullish items, but also a mixed bag of over bought items and ‘catch up’ items.  It is difficult to see just what might stop this momentum as revelers seem to become bolder by the day.  US market at least looks like it could take a short term correction (possibly to refresh) at any time.