Update, Key ETF Charts

A reminder that below is a snapshot of current ETF status, not a comprehensive technical review.

GLD is still above important support although gold did hit its equivalent support in London trading last week.  Residing below the moving averages GLD is still in a downtrend.  MACD is zero- and RSI below 50.


SLV is above critical support, the equivalent of which silver itself tested when it dropped below 19 and reversed last week.  Silver is in a bearish state below the moving averages and with MACD and RSI negative.  The play on silver is whether it is bottoming or not.  Ref: the weekly charts we have reviewed in NFTRH showing that silver is going to break up and out or break down within the next several weeks.


GDX broke down from the bear flag, found support and bounced back to the SMA 200.  To get bullish GDX needs to get through these moving averages and make a higher high to the early April high.  MACD, while below zero, is constructive.  RSI is below resistance.


GDXJ has the same general status as GDX.


SIL has the same status as well.


DBC remains bullish above support and the 50 day moving averages.


DBA broke through resistance (now support) and did a great job working off the over bought condition, while remaining bullish.  See lovely MACD.  Bullish engulfing candle yesterday.  Bullish as long as support holds.


USO made the slightest of higher highs before dropping at resistance.  To remain bullish it should hold the MA 50’s.  MACD is triggered down and RSI may be losing support.


UNG remains bullish above the MA 50’s and looks to test the highs.


URA broke out of its wedge… for a millisecond before tanking.  It pierced ‘support 2’ before putting a tail on the candle and closing at support.  u3o8 also tanked after losing support at 34.  It dropped to a current $30.75/lb.  The fundamental reasons why are beyond the scope of this update.  Backing all of that out, URA is at critical support.


TLT continues to chop around above support.  It is bullish above the MA 50’s.


SPY is back above resistance, now support (again).  MACD and RSI are fine for now, although negatively diverging.


QQQ bounced to the equivalent of the 3600 target we had on the NDX.  It can take a 3rd wave pop to a higher recovery high perhaps even piercing resistance.  But as it stands now QQQ is still in a bearish setup.


SMH is not bullish.  The MA 50’s, key resistance and the red dotted channel line would change that if exceeded, but MACD and RSI are bearish.  If SMH/SOX lose ’10-year’ support, expect a decline to the lower channel line and the MA 200’s.


EZU got back into the wedge and remains bullish above the MA 50’s.


EEM is okay by daily chart above the moving average cluster, but is below the big picture trend line and thus, vulnerable.  I played the March bounce but am not touching this pending the big picture view.


FXI is trying to bounce out of a falling wedge, but is bearish below the MA 200’s.



Bottom Line

  • Precious Metals have proved nothing yet.  Equivalent of HUI 230 (and 50/200 day moving average clusters) is still key on the miners.  Gold and silver have not yet confirmed they have found bottoms, although they are candidates to do just that.
  • Commodities are still a mixed bag with the Ag’s (ref: DBA) leading the upside, uranium leading the downside and crude oil just sort of hanging around.
  • US Stocks are bouncing per expectations, but there are notable divergences in play like a bearish looking Semiconductor index (and ETF), a relatively bearish NDX (and ETF) and as noted in a post at the site yesterday, the bank sector under performing.
  • Global Stocks continue to favor developed vs. Emerging markets.