Note: To keep unwanted clutter out of the in-boxes of those not interested in trade ideas NFTRH+ updates are no longer being emailed. They are posted at the site and accessible using the password for the current week. On Monday an NFTRH+ idea was presented for the NDX.
Reminder: Daily ETF charts are a snapshot of current technicals, not comprehensive technical analysis.
GLD broke a trend line and the SMA 200. Above are the SMA 50 and the EMA 200. MACD is below zero but triggered. GLD is now neutral.
SLV barely broke a trend line after holding important support. MACD is meandering but constructive. SLV remains bearish until it clears the MA 50’s at least.
GDX held a support zone and broke a short term trend line. MACD is constructive. Still technically bearish below the moving averages, however.
SIL is in the same general state as GDX.
Since some gold-positive signs are showing up on the macro (like the bearish BKX-SPX ratio, which would imply a waning of confidence in the US financial system) this week we update some indicators.
GLD-DBC and GLD-USO ratios show that gold has held support vs. commodities and crude oil and turned up over the last week. Gold-Commodities is important as a macro indicator for the economy and for gold’s counter cyclicality. Gold-Oil is important for gold mining.
GDX-GLD continues to advise caution on the short term, however. A phase where the above ratios rise, GDX-GLD rises and nominal prices begin to take out the moving average resistance would be bullish. As yet, we do not have those signals.
GLD-SLV (gold-silver ratio) remains elevated. This indicates market liquidity pressure and a non-inflationary environment.
TLT remains bullish and per our 30 year yields to 3-3.2% plan.
TIP-TLT ratio shows a market still unconcerned about inflation, despite USD continuing to look bearish.
DBC lost support and looks like it is in a little bear flag. Support comes into play at around the SMA 200. DBC is neutral.
DBA is bullish above the support line. Below it bullish would rapidly resolve to neutral.
USO has declined from resistance, could be in a bear flag and is a weak neutral.
UNG is fooling around above support. Critical support is the long term breakout line. Still bullish, though MACD is getting weak.
URA chart says all it has to say. If this remains broken it will be removed from the ETF list until such time as it looks constructive in the future. Right now it is flat out broken.
SPY is still bullish, technically. Key supports are noted.
QQQ continues to look constructive to form a right shoulder on a bearish pattern. Caveat: It’s almost too perfect and surely everyone sees it. QQQ is bearish below noted resistance, which was the expected bounce limit. Above that point, it would be reevaluation time.
SMH does not have a good looking pattern and it is struggling with the MA 50’s. The key is 10 year breakout support. SMH is leaning bearish above it and quite bearish below it.
KBE-SPY ratio (banks vs. stock market, a gauge of confidence in the financial system) has made a definitive lower low. That breaks down a market leader from 2011. This chart is now in rotation as it will be a key going forward for both the stock market and gold.
EZU is still floating along in a wedge-like pattern. It is bullish, with the wedge being a caveat.
EEM is making another attempt up toward the big picture breakout line. It is mostly bullish by this chart on a daily time frame, save for the down triggered MACD.
FXI is bearish below all moving averages. Support is noted. A little Inverted H&S is drawn in as a low probability ‘what if’ and nothing more.
Bottom Line
- Precious Metals: Some gold fundamentals are starting to improve on the macro view. But Treasury yield spreads have not yet improved and need to turn up. GDX-GLD (HUI-Gold ratio) is still in caution mode and nominal daily charts continue to show there is more work to do to turn the picture bullish. Ultimately, it is a counter cyclical environment we are interested in for a gold bullish view. The macro is making some signs toward that view, but things tend to play out in our brains faster than they do in the markets.
- Commodities: Remain a very mixed bag.
- Stock Markets: The US market has been on a bounce from a hard lunge down (led by tech) in April. With bank leadership failing and junk bond to investment grade and T bond ratios looking toppy, the elements are in place for a market correction. We will watch tech, semiconductors and of course, the indicators for ongoing confirmation or negation.
