Market fears the Fed will over tighten
Always needing an excuse for any given daily move, the MSfM serves up investors' Fed tightening fears this morning You can click the image of a pensive trader staring intently…
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January 19, 2023
2-year Treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates?
The 2 year Treasury yield inched up, then sagged The session ended with the 2 year Treasury yield up a teeny within the potential topping structure that we've been tracking…
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December 14, 2022
November CPI report: We’re on plan
As the November CPI report moderates, disinflation continues apace As the great and powerful Fed of Oz prepares to render his decision (ha ha ha) on the Fed Funds rate,…
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December 13, 2022
A jawbone of a different kind
Powell cheers the stock market with words of a softening stance Or at least that is how markets are interpreting the smaller rate hikes to come. Problem is, we already…
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November 30, 2022
David Rosenberg on Deflation
David Rosenberg on Deflation From an NFTRH subscriber: "Gary, You might want to watch David Rosenberg’s presentation. You guys have a lot in common wrt your market outlook and deflation…
November 24, 2022
FOMC hot off the press…
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply…
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November 2, 2022
The Fed is forced to pay you to stay safe
As the Fed fights the last war (on inflation) the result is a rare thing; a bear market haven called cash, paying increasing income Safety Vehicles Gold: For long-term financial…
October 20, 2022
.75% hike in the bag
FOMC will raise the funds rate by .75% on November 2 So says CME Group... And so says the bond market... ...as the Continuum spikes to and through our target…
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October 19, 2022
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Yield Curve: Peak Fed? [w/ edit]
As per one of my favorite 'not taking the analysis too seriously' market memes... ...we note that global casino patrons are good and pissed, scared and downright apoplectic. Especially overseas…
October 18, 2022
Fed minutes: what else is new?
Fed minutes show the hawking Fed fully feathered They can't be this dumb. So there has to be a reason why the Fed, despite myriad signs of economic and inflationary…
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October 12, 2022
.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflation indicators go the other way
FOMC, inflation, commodities & gold Even as inflation expectations roll over from the 2022 high... ...the CRB index continues to bounce. Here's DBC for an up to the minute view.…
October 6, 2022
CME wiseguys see at least .5%, favor .75% for next FOMC meeting
CME Group traders favor a .75% Fed Funds Rate hike on November 2nd Meanwhile, inflation expectations have been cracking lately. My thesis is and has been that the Fed is…
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October 3, 2022
Speed readers to your marks…
Because here's the anticlimactic event (that's an assumption because this is written prior to the FOMC release) you've been waiting for... September 21, 2022 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For…
September 21, 2022
T-minus 1 day, 4 hours and 42 minutes…
Eggheads assemble, as FOMC meets Ooh, can't you just cut the tension with a knife? FOMC is going to hike the funds rate by at least .75% tomorrow and according…
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September 20, 2022