August Payrolls Report +187k vs. +170k Expected
Good Ship Lollipop sails on with a minor beat vs. expectations You can read the report at BLS by clicking below: I'd say that keeps the winning, yet ever creepy…
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September 1, 2023
July Payrolls, +187,000
July Payrolls came in light, Hazel attempts to frown but her grotesque smile still lurks beneath The estimate by economists for July payrolls was +200,000. It came in light. So…
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August 4, 2023
June Payrolls Report: +209,000, Lower Than Expected
June Payrolls Report checks in at +209,000 (expectations were 240,000) Okay, so we can try to paint a little frown on Hazel's face, although my artwork is no match for…
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July 7, 2023
June ADP Report Booms, Yields Rise, Inflation Trades to Follow?
The June ADP report doubled expectations, yields respond, Hazel never to wipe that smile off her face? As this article says, Leisure and Hospitality led the way as the Good…
July 6, 2023
May Payrolls report illusion
May Payrolls report; not all it's cracked up to be On Friday we noted that the May Payrolls report was 'services' laden and late stage stuff. Early stage stuff like…
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June 5, 2023
May Payrolls report; a booming laggard
The May Payrolls report shows what else? Booming and laggard Services drives payrolls at +339,000 Killing an inflated economy is proving to be touchy (and sticky) business. As manufacturing continues…
June 2, 2023
Fed Minutes circus: Banking Crisis to cause recession
Fed minutes show just how out of touch the eggheads are The Fed minutes were published for all to see (in my case, ignore until this morning). Step right up,…
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April 13, 2023
Producer prices decline, but Empire State Manufacturing survey is the bad news
The Empire State Manufacturing survey is bad Here is the report (PDF) from the New York Fed. Let's just take a visual journey down the road to disinflation/deflation and economic…
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March 15, 2023
January Payrolls +517,000
January payrolls boomed at +517,000 You can click the graphic to get the details from BLS: I was quite taken aback by how strong the January Payrolls reading was. While…
February 3, 2023
Are we on plan or what?
Inflation signals and economy fading/decelerating as expected That which was built of inflation will deconstruct with inflation's fade. That's the rough plan, anyway. It's important to remember that short-term phases…
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January 18, 2023
December Payrolls report: +223,000
December payrolls increased by 223,000 You can click this graphic for the full BLS report... You can click this fellow doing his job to see the MSM's take on it...…
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January 6, 2023
December ISM Manufacturing RoB continues to decelerate
The December ISM Manufacturing Survey is per our 2023 plans The December ISM report is bad, folks. And it's on track to our favored view for this year as the…
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January 4, 2023
Inputs from the Philly Fed surveys for December
Philly Fed manufacturing and non-manufacturing data are decelerating Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December Current Philadelphia area manufacturing activity has drilled down toward recession levels, while optimistic survey respondents see…
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December 22, 2022
November CPI report: We’re on plan
As the November CPI report moderates, disinflation continues apace As the great and powerful Fed of Oz prepares to render his decision (ha ha ha) on the Fed Funds rate,…
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December 13, 2022