A snapshot of current daily technicals…
Precious Metals
GLD held last week’s ‘tentative’ key support and now it is just plain KEY support. Next resistance level is just over head.
SLV got above the SMA 50, which was a positive. It is however, still within the resistance zone. A successful break above would set the intermediate rally scenario to the SMA 200 or around 18, where there will be major resistance.
GDX still has 20 as the key level that would spring a rally that is more than just a ‘bounce’. Not necessarily a new bull, but an intermediate rally. 20 is key.
SIL has a similar situation, with the high 9’s/low 10’s being key.
Commodities
DBC is flat out bearish, but over sold.
DBB held support, but is bearish below the SMA’s 50 and 200.
DBA is also bearish below its SMA 50.
USO has built in a ton of resistance. It is heavily over sold.
UNG is at new lows and bearish.
PALL is in a sneaky bullish pattern and right at resistance, which would activate the pattern if exceeded and held.
URA is still working off the Japan Nuke hype. A rise above the SMA 50 would an initial positive sign.
COPX remains bearish and has added short-term resistance.
Treasury Bonds
TLT, HYG and the HYG-TLT ratio show a bullish trend, a bearish trend and a negative divergence to the US stock market, respectively.
TIP vs. TLT shows a lack of inflation expectations in the bond market.
US Stock Market
SPY held short-term support yesterday. It remains key to avoiding an intermediate correction to around the SMA 50. MACD is a concern.
QQQ also held key short-term support. Has the same MACD issue as SPY.
SMH is technically fine, but over bought.
IWM held short-term support. More important support resides at the SMA’s 50 and 200 just below.
Global Stocks
EWC is bearish after failing to hold above the moving averages. No doubt the Canadian energy complex is heavy here.
EZU dropped below support yesterday. 37 area and the SMA 50 are now key to keeping an intermediate rally in play.
EWG has initial support at 28, with intermediate support around 27.
EWP dropped below the trend line yesterday, right to intermediate support at the SMA 50. Spain (AKA a PIIGS AKA a speculative market) could be an indicator of Europe’s speculative urges and near-term direction.
FXI dropped hard, right to support amidst some inflammatory news coming out of China.
EEM is dropping into an important support zone. A lower low to October would be even more bearish.
Currency
UUP held initial support yesterday.
FXE is trying to bounce. Yesterday it hit initial resistance. Only a rise above the declining SMA 50 would indicate a decent counter trend rally.
FXY is bouncing with a decent looking MACD. Keep an eye on the Yen as it is a foil to the bullish global environment. If the bounce continues, it could come in tandem with corrective stock market activity.
Bottom Line
Precious Metals: The bounce continues and it has now come near points that could begin to define it as an intermediate rally as opposed to simply a bounce. Noted resistance levels are key.
Commodities: Bearish all around. Mostly over sold, but no indication of anything bullish yet, aside from a constructive looking Palladium. Also, Platinum moved above its 50 day moving average yesterday. We may watch that one as well.
Bonds: US Treasuries have recovered very nicely from the interest rate scare after the Employment Report. Junk vs. Treasury spreads continue to be a negative divergence to the US stock market. TIP vs. TLT shows little concern about inflation.
US Stocks: As noted in other updates, the little corrective blips on Monday and Tuesday were normal. Short-term support parameters shown above are key to the market remaining normal on the short-term view.
Global Stocks: Varying degrees of bearish to under performing relative to the US. Europe is fading toward intermediate support. China is wild, up and down and the Emerging Markets are bearish.
Currencies: USD is bullish and Euro is bearish. One can continue to correct and the other can bounce. But it’s Uncle Buck bullish, Euro bearish on a bigger picture. Yen is bouncing; let’s watch it. The ‘commodity currencies’ of Canada and Australia (not shown) remain bearish this week.
