A technical snapshot of key ETF’s…
GLD has bounced from critical support (equiv. of gold 1180). MACD triggered up is positive.
GLD-SPY would be very important to any gold sector investment case. This is really a macro fundamental chart as it is a gauge of confidence (in policy making and in the markets propped by policy making). At this point, GLD-SPY is constructive to put in a bottom of some kind, but the downtrend would not change until the 50 and then 200 day moving averages are successfully dealt with.
SLV made a move to bounce but MACD has not triggered. Bearish, can bounce.
SLV-GLD got very over bought and is now very over sold. This ratio would rise if an ‘inflation trade’ were to come about, taking pressure off asset markets.
GDX made a lower low and is at the December low (support). Bearish, can bounce.
GDXJ made a lower low but is above support. Can bounce but MACD shows no sign of it yet.
DBC lost the equiv. of CCI 500 long-term support and now that is critical resistance.
DBB is rising to resistance.
DBA broke the downtrend channel. Resistance is noted.
USO continues to be very weak, support at 33.
As an aside, here is what gold (GLD) is doing vs. oil (USO). A rise in this ratio benefits gold mining fundamentals.
UNG is still in the going nowhere trend.
URA continues to be very bearish. It also continues to hold interest as a speculation on a would-be ‘inflation trade’.
TLT continues strong against the deflationary backdrop.
TIP-TLT broke down from the channel. A couple days of relative up volume for TIP vs. TLT bears watching.
HYG-TLT continues to weaken, as does HYG-LQD. These are negative indicators for the US stock market.
SPY says it was a bull trap and the activity since has confirmed resistance and dropped the price out of its uptrend channel. The key is now the August low. A hold there and it’s a typical bear trap. A lower low there and a new bear trend – and bear trade – regime begins.
QQQ may get down to some significant support testing after all.
SMH has key support at the August low. Lose that and it’s the Long-term breakout test express.
IWM is a downside leader and it is right at critical support. It is critical because IWM/Russell 2000 are in very clear topping patterns by longer-term charts.
XLE, which was NFTRH+’d last weekend, is in the same status. Key support is noted, below which would be the stop loss.
EZU remains very bearish.
EWP remains very bearish.
FXI is in a bearish trend but bouncing.
EEM is in a bearish trend but bouncing.
FXE is bouncing with 1st resistance being the lost long-term support level.
UUP has stalled, with 1st support being the long-term resistance breakout.
FXY is bouncing in a short-term Reverse Symmetrical Triangle, which is often a reversal pattern. Yen is getting some short covering.
Bottom Line
Precious Metals: Bearish, but as per our preferred big picture macro theme, gold is out performing not only silver, but increasingly other commodities and stock markets on the short-term. Not so ironically, silver would probably lead any counter trend bounces or rallies.
Commodities: Bearish, but a few of them are bouncing with the Ag’s (DBA) and Industrial Metals (DBB) notable.
Stock Markets: Bearish, with the US market finally joining the misery. Global markets are increasingly damaged. The US would also be damaged if indexes start to lose the August lows.
Currencies: USD (UUP) is bullish but prone to pullback. Euro is bouncing and so too is the Yen, which could experience a short covering rally as much of the rest of the asset world corrects.
