NFTRH; Emerging Weakness
Since we routinely cover the emerging markets and also their ratio to the US stock market, I thought I would update some notable changes.
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September 12, 2014
NFTRH; Speaking of Russia
This started out as an NFTRH+ update, but since any stance with the Russian stock market is a longer-term proposition, I decided it was best as a regular update for anyone who might be interested. We’ll keep NFTRH+ on mostly shorter-term scenarios (INTC being an exception), often involving US stocks (and precious metals and commodities equities when they are in setups and when the macro fundamentals indicate a good backdrop).
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September 12, 2014
NFTRH; PM’s; Good, Bad & Ugly
Sentiment Backdrop
Improving CoT data, public opinion in the dumps, Hulbert’s HGNSI at an extreme bearish level and the contributed articles at Kitco uniformly bearish (or at least acknowledging that gold is done for a while). Getting very bullish, but sentiment is not a very good timer.
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September 11, 2014
NFTRH; Key ETF Update
A snapshot of current technicals for key markets…
GLD became very bearish with the breakdown from 124. A rise above 123 is needed to even begin to repair this chart.
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September 9, 2014
NFTRH; HUI Tickles Target Range
Today HUI has attained a low of 224.68. Here is the daily chart…
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September 5, 2014
NFTRH+; EZU Short Setup & Parameters
This one is cut and dry technically. Europe has been bouncing as expected and is apparently overjoyed about some Ukraine-Russia talks. Backing out the hype what we have here is a hard down in an ETF that lost its uptrend and the 50/200 day moving averages. It is now bouncing right back to them.
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September 3, 2014
NFTRH+; Bearish Gold Setup & Parameters
Folks, being a long standing gold bull on the big picture it is a little weird for me to do this. But NFTRH+ is a service that focuses on technical trading and GLD/Gold are in a bearish setup. Hence, it is noted for those interested.
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September 2, 2014
NFTRH; Precious Metals Indicators
I have had the HUI 220 to 225 potential hanging out there for quite a while now. Interestingly, today with gold and silver getting hammered that HUI support zone looks far away and out of reach, unless the sector is going to totally break down.
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September 2, 2014
NFTRH+; Gold Juniors & Explorers
‘+’ updates have thus far been on non-precious metals items because of the extended grind of would-be bottom patterns in play for the last year, and because other items have had more definable and actionable setups. This morning I want to look ahead at the juniors and explorers since the patterns are maturing.
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August 28, 2014
NFTRH; Key ETF Update
A snapshot of the current technical status of key ETFs…
GLD filled gap, which now closes out the geopolitical hype and leaves gold on its own right at key support. Still not a constructive looking chart. A rise above the SMA 200 and then the 50 makes it constructive.
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August 27, 2014
NFTRH; 2 Precious Metals Markers
Yesterday we had some supports threatened and in some cases broken. Today these are being repaired. Further, the Silver-Gold and GDXJ-GDX ratios remained at a potential bottom and a short-term uptrend respectively.
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August 26, 2014
NFTRH; Miner Support Threat
There is not much new here, but I thought I would pass along an updated view by daily charts…
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August 25, 2014
Deflationary Straw Man
No matter the debates over inflation vs. deflation, increasing employment vs. sound monetary policy or systemic health vs. fragility (and whatever else is flying around in Jackson Hole this week), the CPI marches onward and upward. That is the system and it is predicated on creating enough money out of thin air while inflation signals are (somehow) held at bay.
The Straw Man* in this argument lives in the idea that inflation is not always destructive, that inflation can be used for good and honed, massaged and targeted just right to achieve positive ends to defeat the curse of deflation that is surely just around the next corner. Currently, the Straw Man is supported by the reality of the moment, which includes long-term Treasury yields remaining in their long-term secular down trend.
Indeed, right here at this very site was displayed much doubt about the promotion having to do with the “Great Rotation” out of bonds and into stocks (i.e. that the yield would break the red dotted EMA 100 this time). We noted it right at that last red arrow on the Continuum© below. Now, with commodity indexes right at critical support and precious metals not far from their own, the time is now if a match is going to be put to that dry old Straw Man and silver is going to out perform gold, inflation expectations barometers (TIPS vs. unprotected T bonds) are going to turn up and the Continuum is going to find support.
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August 22, 2014
NFTRH+; Copper Miners Setup
With Copper rising above the converged 50 and 200 day SMA’s (around 3.18/lb) and with commodities in general at do-or-die support, I wanted to put up a chart of COPX for future reference for you copper/base metals aficionados.
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August 22, 2014