Inflation? I don’t think so… and neither do bonds
This inflation phase is done, so says the bond market It is as I've been saying for at least a half a year now; inflation is done. For this cycle…
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April 5, 2023
Lunatic discusses his 30 year Treasury bond yield Continuum chart
The 30 year Treasury bond yield 'Continuum' in its creator's words [edit] YouTube channel now operational. I'd love it if you'd care to subscribe. It's actually another test of sorts,…
March 8, 2023
What if the 30 year Treasury yield is bull flagging?
The 30 year Treasury yield 'Continuum' is postured above 3.4% support and below 4% resistance The monthly chart of the 30 year Treasury bond yield is stacking candles below the…
February 21, 2023
NFTRH+; markets are ‘anti’ this key element
Interest rates have bounced since the big Payrolls report. These rates are generally supportive of USD when they rise and not surprisingly have been in correction for much of the…
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February 7, 2023
If you’re a nerd, you find this amazing
2 year Treasury bond yield continues to diverge T-bills Well, this nerd is amazed by it (and several other out of whack macro indicators), at least. The 3 month T-bill…
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January 26, 2023
Putting the 2 year Treasury bond yield in context
The 2 year Treasury bond yield, T-bill and S&P 500 beg multiple interpretations I called the 2 year Treasury bond yield the most important chart in the world the other…
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January 11, 2023
NFTRH+; let’s watch to see if this move is real…
The move being the pullback in long-term yields this morning, which would be in line with our view of disinflation and a pivot toward the favored counter-cyclical 2023 view as…
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January 3, 2023
NFTRH 737
NFTRH 737 Merry Christmas folks, and happy holidays of all persuasions. Let's jump into an abbreviated, summary style report [edit: of course it did not quite go that way as…
December 24, 2022
NFTRH+; Bond market indications
Long-term Treasury yields are rising this week within their intact daily uptrends. Bearing in mind that we are in the midst of a silly season, where I don't think market…
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December 23, 2022
30yr Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ updated
The 30 year Treasury bond yield (Continuum) is 100% on the NFTRH plan The plan was set in motion when first the the 30 year Treasury yield (TYX) took out…
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November 16, 2022
NFTRH+; Yield Curve
A snapshot of the 10-2yr yield curve this morning as long-term rates appear to be blowing off to the upside and short-term rates drop. In other words, bonds are getting…
October 21, 2022
.75% hike in the bag
FOMC will raise the funds rate by .75% on November 2 So says CME Group... And so says the bond market... ...as the Continuum spikes to and through our target…
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October 19, 2022
“Post-bubble contraction”
"Post-bubble contraction" (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience.…
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October 14, 2022
NFTRH+; about the bond market
From subscriber Michael, who cannot comment on protected posts due to a glitch caused by the interaction between his and my Wordpress accounts... Sorry, I still can't post on protected...this…
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October 11, 2022