March ISM report; Macro view on track
The March ISM report on manufacturing is right on schedule to our macro view Manufacturing is not a laggard, like a lot of the inflation stuff and services-related employment still…
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April 4, 2023
Producer prices decline, but Empire State Manufacturing survey is the bad news
The Empire State Manufacturing survey is bad Here is the report (PDF) from the New York Fed. Let's just take a visual journey down the road to disinflation/deflation and economic…
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March 15, 2023
December ISM Manufacturing RoB continues to decelerate
The December ISM Manufacturing Survey is per our 2023 plans The December ISM report is bad, folks. And it's on track to our favored view for this year as the…
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January 4, 2023
Inputs from the Philly Fed surveys for December
Philly Fed manufacturing and non-manufacturing data are decelerating Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December Current Philadelphia area manufacturing activity has drilled down toward recession levels, while optimistic survey respondents see…
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December 22, 2022
Remember those supply chain issues?
Post-pandemic supply chain disruptions are becoming a thing of the past Check out the state of one of the drivers that exacerbated the inflation created by the Federal Reserve. As…
October 26, 2022
ISM continues to decelerate
The September ISM shows manufacturing continuing to weaken Of course, this is a forward looking economic indicator, so why would our friends at the inflation-fighting Federal Reserve take it or…
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October 12, 2022
April ISM and the forward economic view
ISM hints at forward deceleration Uncle Buck As a former manufacturing guy I am well aware of how monetary policy and the state of the US dollar affects US manufacturers.…
May 5, 2022
A Decidedly Different Look at the ISM Report on Business
ISM's Report on Business (RoB) blisters upward, but... My former residence within the real economy was right here, in the manufacturing base. I don't miss it even one little bit,…
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April 2, 2021
ISM Continues to Fade
Here is the full ISM Report on Business if you'd like to check it out. Here are the concerning items I've marked up... Here are what some respondents have to…
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December 2, 2019
Philly Fed Bumps Up, With a Cost-Push Inflation Hint
It's just one region, but the Philly Fed's Manufacturing survey bumped up in its most recent reading. The thing I find most interesting is the expectation that manufacturers will be…
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November 21, 2019
Looking Into the ISM Manufacturing Report
The PMI declined again in August and it was not just due to less important readings like Production or Deliveries. The key failures are highlighted. Backlogs grew for the period…
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September 3, 2019
Strong Manufacturing & Strong Employment = ?
Strong economy! Okay, now that we have that out of the way the futures reversed this morning on the jobs report that should have been no surprise to anyone. It's…
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September 7, 2018
A Routine Look at the Empire Survey Morphs Into a Mini Screed
Full report here From NY Fed: Business activity grew at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The…
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April 16, 2018
As Good as it Gets; Like 2000 With a Twist
With the Semiconductor sector below but hailing its all-time highs, a lot of images come to mind; chief among them the 1999-2000 stock market bubble... In early 2013 we noted…
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October 4, 2017