Commodity currencies must stand and deliver, or break down

CAD and AUD are each at important support vs. the US dollar index There are just too many important support touch points on CAD/USD for this not to be a key support area right here. The same holds true for AUD/USD. These two commodity currencies have been joining fellow inflation-divergent items like the Gold/Copper ratio, Gold/Silver ratio, TSX-V/TSX ratio and the firm state of the … Continue reading Commodity currencies must stand and deliver, or break down

New trend being set on the 10-2yr Yield Curve

Yield curve steepening, but there’s more to the story The yield curve can steepen under inflationary pressure (e.g. 2020) or deflationary pressure (e.g. 2008). The most recent steepener was inflationary. This new one well, my bet is the opposite. So to repeat, everyone is on one side of the macro boat and a post-inversion steepener usually comes with an economic bust. This market is rapidly … Continue reading New trend being set on the 10-2yr Yield Curve

Not inflation friendly

A few inflation unfriendly pictures while everyone huddles on that side of the boat I don’t know. Maybe they’ve obsoleted contrarian theory. Cancel culture and all. But just in case they haven’t there are these pictures to consider. There are more, but this gives the tenor of the situation from a contrary perspective. 2yr Treasury note is firm and diverging upward by RSI. Doctor Copper … Continue reading Not inflation friendly

NFTRH 704, out now

It’s a bear market in stocks. Captain Obvious speaks. But there are potentials within that. Potential for a dispiriting crash, potential for a confounding rally and potential for a moderate (but still painful for over-exposed bulls) bear cycle rather than all out Armageddon. On the big picture more and more of the global macro is failing. Commodity bulls are losing the firm ground beneath their … Continue reading NFTRH 704, out now

Copper, copper miners and the Gold/Silver ratio

Copper and copper miners breaking bad I looked at FCX and thought about buying it as it got dropped to a higher low at the SMA 200. Today it has dropped below it (still a higher low to January’s low). I’d be interested, except that the Copper Miners ETF looks even more suspect and the good Doctor himself is threatening a breakdown… DESPITE booming jobs, … Continue reading Copper, copper miners and the Gold/Silver ratio

New Curve steepener still inflationary (duh)

Yield curve steepens again, under inflationary pressure Look, if we are going to kill the hysteria of the day it is not going to be killed in a day. It is going to be killed over weeks and months of grinding up and down, flitting brain cells trying to quantify and make sense of daily happenings while the picture churns so slowly as to try … Continue reading New Curve steepener still inflationary (duh)

Payrolls +428,000

April Payrolls increase by 428,000 You can get all the details of yet another strong BLS report by clicking the blurb: Drilling into it we find Leisure and Hospitality leading the consumerist ‘services’ economy as usual. But look who’s also strong. That would be manufacturing, which is growing as noted in yesterday’s post, albeit at a slowing rate. That’s pretty good. But a 12 month … Continue reading Payrolls +428,000

The Continuum; center stage during next week’s inflation data fest

The 30yr Treasury yield takes center stage as inflation data come in With next week’s inflation data orgy we may find out if this chart is truly on its way to a 4% long bond yield and maybe even von Mises’ crack-up-boom territory or just a more epic whipsaw and reversal. The 30yr yield is definitely in full frontal inflation mode at the moment. It … Continue reading The Continuum; center stage during next week’s inflation data fest

ism

April ISM and the forward economic view

ISM hints at forward deceleration Uncle Buck As a former manufacturing guy I am well aware of how monetary policy and the state of the US dollar affects US manufacturers. But I have not been that guy for so long now that I tend not to look at it as closely anymore. But the current time seems appropriate for a review of the manufacturing sector. … Continue reading April ISM and the forward economic view

FOMC aside, maybe the real news comes next week

There will be inflation headlines next week The Fed’s ‘decision’ (ha ha ha) is in the bag. They are finally going to do what this chart has been demanding they do. But what about this graph? Credit spreads are rising again and that is not good. Not good at all. One wonders at what point the inflation comps may start to fade, YoY. One wonders … Continue reading FOMC aside, maybe the real news comes next week