Excerpted from the October 2 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 725:
Gold & Silver
Gold and silver (monthly chart) continue in the cyclical bear that started in mid-2020. I had originally (and incorrectly) projected a Cup & Handle for gold that had to be revised to a double top when the 2022 high failed to gain blue sky. I’ve left the Cup drawn on the chart but that is no longer a handle of any sort. It’s a mess, actually.
The next technical target for gold is support in the 1500s per this Sept. 15th update [password protected]. Also note that the update included an extreme downside below 1300. While not overly likely (IMO), that would put a hard test on the bull market, which was indicated when gold took out the 1378 “bull gateway” (the bull/bear line shown below) in 2019.
As for silver, it continues to hold important long-term support at/around 18 after making a quick breakdown and reversal.
<end excerpt>
The precious metals complex is in a positive risk/reward situation, but that is different from a situation imminently ready to resume a bull market. It’s a process. A long and grinding one. Gold, silver and the miners have led the broad bear market by a country mile (the bear cycle is now in year 3) and the question remains whether or to what degree a final decline will manifest prior to bottoming.
That question could be answered by the answer to another question: Have enough inflation-centric bugs been exterminated (or at least cleaned out of the investor base) yet?
This excerpt was preceded in #725 by a couple of still-bearish macro indicators for gold to go along with Friday’s public article highlighting some developing positive ones. The excerpt was followed by a big picture technical view of HUI and review of the correction targets we are operating to.
Frankly, this report served to tamp my greed back down a bit and affirm my patience as well. I am often a different investor immediately after writing a weekend report than I was before it.
The rest of NFTRH 725 was very helpful to me personally, and that goes well beyond the precious metals. We are developing a thesis that would surprise a lot of 2022’s angst ridden broad market herds if it plays out.
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Hence, why it is imperative to journal our journey with all the scenarios and hope-to-be’s periodically. Then go back and read them a bit later on. It changes ya, man.
It sure does. I admit to getting a little goofy on Friday when I saw the gold ratios continuing as they were. But this being the gold sector, it’s never over until it’s over.
Breaking 1700 now.
Should have waited a day before posting. Consider if gold goes straight to $2000 and silver to $25 how embarrassing this supremely confident will appear.
who said I was supremely confident and why would I be emberrassed if it went from 1700 to 2000? I’m long. was buying into recent lows. I am never supremely confident and certainly didn’t say I was in the post
Scott, I suspect he was trolling me, not you. And if it’s who I think it is he’s dumb enough to hit the wrong button. He’s been trying to troll me for a decade+ and he’s a moron.
If however, it’s not him, I’ll take that back and he’s either just garden variety trolling you or more probably me.
Can you imagine a world without trolls? Or a world without wild eyed day trade obsessed casino patrons? Oh right, you can’t.
plenty of nuts out there. They can be Wrong-way useful though.