Another CPI report, another big inflation headline
All I can say (publicly) is that we are on track. I was actually concerned that today’s headline might be the opposite of the hysterical inflation headlines to date. You can click the image to get the article at CNBC if you’d like.
Now, if market participants can just keep their contrarian spirits under wraps until FOMC and its .75% or 1% rate hike to come, we just may have the makings of an important macro pivot.
As for the headline above? I did not read the article. No need to. The consumer has been bludgeoned by rising prices even as Agricultural and other commodities have tanked and market-based inflation signals have receded significantly. You know that supply chains are not going to give up on their newfound margins that quickly. No, they are going to gouge a bit first. I mean, if I were a grocer and my customers (the public, the last group to comprehend macro changes) were still expecting higher prices I’d be err, a little slow on price adjustments too.
For my plan and NFTRH’s favored sketch of the near future, today should not be some kind of contrarian turning point driven by the CPI headline. Now, it may still be an ‘as bad as it [inflation] gets, buy the news’ signal, but I would prefer that the herd go the other way; the frightened and bearish way.
By the way, the graphic says “Treasury yields pop” but taking a look at the 30yr & 10yr, the picture is very much in doubt about whether they’re going to run higher with the headline’s still hot inflation message.
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