If you’re only watching market prices (and drama) you’re missing key points beneath the surface
I have not posted yet this week due to being preoccupied elsewhere, due to having done a lot of work lately getting in tune with what’s going on across the markets, due to being bored with the idea of being the guy telling gold bugs don’t buy gold because of war (or puke stocks because of same) and due to not wanting to be a play-by-play caller (as opposed to analyst) as the media hype Russia/Ukraine and trot out multiple jawboning Fed talking heads a day.
I feel well enough in tune with the market personally that I don’t feel like digging too deep to find more signals. I’ve got more than enough already (IMO). So here are macro charts with embedded messages and decision point options. Well, the top chart has decision points. The bottom chart has made its decision, and that decision is “Federal Reserve, I hereby proclaim you behind the curve.”
This chart shows that the macro decision point ahead is between an accelerated (and likely Stagflationary) inflation problem and a liquidation of some kind. Thus far it’s still inflation ‘on’ as CRB approaches the long-standing (since 2020) NFTRH target of 270+ and Copper/Gold continues its sideways routine and both of them look above at the 30yr yield Continuum and its bullish pose below the yield limiters.
I believe the Fed would like to see all three of the chart panels above ease or even drop. The question is whether the desperation and aggressiveness with which a caught off guard Fed has been reacting (jawboning) implies they’ve already lost the handle on this thing. Because the bond market is already signaling them late and I don’t think it can wait until mid-March, double rate hike or not.
I think that if Putin puts his shirt back on and rides his white horse back to Moscow we can get that noise out of the macro and depend on the purity of financial signals as opposed to inflammatory media crap.
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