I had held AMD in Q4 2021, and when I saw NVDA start to slide ugly I noted in NFTRH that it and my AMD holding could flash a negative signal for the Semis. They are among the sexiest, most richly valued Semis after all. They lead.
They then led alright. Down, just as before they had led up. I bought both of them on the epic tank job last week and indeed, SOX continues to generally be my favorite of the main US indexes. AMD took care of a gap from early October (I have not bothered to mark up this ‘speaks for itself’ chart). I bought a little early as it then crashed the SMA 200, filling that gap before reversal.
It’s stuff like this that prompt me to say I like it when markets are in motion, as opposed to robo-trending. Perceptions get disrupted when markets go in motion and a disrupted herd is a reliable herd. It can be relied upon to push the limits when it is in motion.
Anyway, AMD pleasured the market at earnings.
And is surging upward in pre-market.
This does not alter my macro view, which is for a market rally and then an evaluation as to whether last week was a first bear shot across the bow (lower lows for all major indexes but the SOX could theoretically be the first lower low marker of a new trend). The other option is that the fear that whipped up to epic – but maybe not utterly terrified, as in Q1 2020 – degree could spur new highs in the indexes and the USS Good Ship Lollipop setting sail for calm bull market waters once again. It’s all on the table.
Indeed, the chink in the armor of my cyclical bear market option is the Semiconductor sector, of which I am longer than any other sector and about which NFTRH has had a special focus since 2020. Corrections and cyclical bear markets will come, but the Semiconductor sector is not going anywhere because, this…
Unless the world as we know it ends and we are all fated to be sitting in individualized Unabomber shacks on our stash of guns and gold.
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