Let’s take a roundup of the ‘gold vs.’ ratios with the reminder that all of these charts would represent counter-cyclical and/or dis-inflationary signaling when they rise. We’ll use GLD for gold and various ETFs for the other markets. Bear in mind that all of these indicators need to rise in order to signal a turn to positive in gold mining longer-term macro fundamentals. Forget inflation. That has nothing to do with proper fundamentals.
Gold/SPX: It looks like a first impulsive launch type situation. It’ll probably get whacked at some point during the noisy FOMC week, but it looks like a first leg as it has taken out the SMA 200.
Gold/Global Stocks: Same.
Gold/Commodities: Still no appreciable move, but do we see the slightest hint today?
Gold/Oil: Of course, it is this over-hyped commodity that is driving the commodities indexes. This one is very important to the gold mining industry. A hint? I hope so because I am short oil and more importantly, long a core of gold stocks.
Gold/Base Metals: There’s the little hint again.
Gold/Copper: Gold is not doing much vs. the prime industrial metal, but it’s a hint as well.
Gold/Materials: That’s more like it as gold bursts upward vs. this reflation-sensitive segment.
Gold/Silver: If this ratio establishes and maintains an uptrend, which it is trying to do today, the inflation stuff is going to have problems and market liquidity will become an issue. While a rising GSR can come with pain to gold stocks (as inflationist bugs and silver bugs sell), it would attend the changing macro that would ultimately be beneficial to gold mining as an industry.
