Since a micro version of the right backdrop for gold and the miners that would leverage that backdrop is in play now it is time to review our (well, my) assumptions about gold from a technical perspective.
The projected bounce is still on and to this point we have had a bounce target of the converged moving averages at 1830 +/-. Note however, that this involves breaking back above the downtrend channel, which is the Handle to the monthly chart’s bullish Cup.
Let’s use the weekly chart to take it a bit further. A man stares at the chart and imagines an inverted H&S, which is a bullish pattern if it plays out. The first step to bringing this scenario into better focus is to take out the bounce target noted above and clear those daily moving averages. The second step would be to clear the orange dashed neckline and the May high.
If those things happen my projections for a new low within the Handle will have been wrong. But at least we’ll have had this ‘heads up’ during the bounce, which has been expected and planned for. Let’s keep an eye on gold, the macro markets/indications and be open minded.
