Jobs +266K, Yields Pull Back

All in the service to playing a game of ‘Hide the [inflationary] Cheese’…

April’s expected hiring boom goes bust as nonfarm payroll gain falls well short of estimates

Here’s the release from BLS, which you can get by clicking the headline.

I had felt that the underside of the 2.5% – 2.8% caution zone on the Continuum would bring some kind of halt to yields along with, potentially, the yield curve and inflation expectations. I did not know what its trigger would be but a little cooling in an employment report qualifies.

Other little bouts of dis-inflation have come courtesy of political/policy fear (e.g. coming tax increases) and the like. For a morning at least, a little bout of dis-inflationary input is the case as yields pulled back (now recoiling) and the non-reflation oriented stuff popped (Tech, Gold, Gold/Silver ratio, etc.). Curiously though, USD got dope slammed.

I wonder though, if the 30yr yield is bull flagging to make a somewhat symmetrical inverse shoulder to the left side. That’s ‘man stares at chart’ stuff, but with the market’s penchant for pushing extremes, I would not discount the probability that the inflation trades are not done yet. Or at least that the EMA 100/120 limiters will be pressed into service… again.


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