Sure, anything can happen. But at the moment long-term yields are recovering, which has been the expected course…
…if the Continuum is going to reach the limiter. Markets usually push the limits.
I was unclear about whether yields would get a more pronounced pullback before rising again, but as long as the top charts hold the SMA 50s it looks like they can bust to a new high. For the 30yr yield that means a further poke up into the 2.5% to 2.8% (giving more wiggle room per the solid red monthly EMA 120) caution/limit zone. The target has been 2.7% and the yield is only at 2.3%.
What is happening here is that real yields (vs. officially measured inflation, which is different from actual inflation) are stable and so the machines would be programmed for bearish gold.
Now personally, I don’t care what gold does as a lump of insurance. But as a gold stock trader I do care. Again, the miners leverage gold’s standing in the macro. Right now that standing continues to be negative and so the mining fundamentals are negative (as we’ve belabored). Until the funda change, at best gold stocks could continue to rally (ref. the HUI 273 pullback projection) on sentiment, which sparked the bounce.
But the way the macro is looking this week please don’t be fooled into thinking that just because the Fed is still on its funny munny creating ways it is fundamentally positive for gold stocks. As yields climb and cyclical commodities and stocks out perform gold, it is not.
