NFTRH: Nothing Special

So I was Twitter chatting with a pal after he passed along some favorable posts about NFTRH from a gold oriented message forum. But he also noted that someone else had chimed in about how I am not aggressive enough and did nothing special in 2016.

True to my nature I paid more attention to the criticism than the compliments.

Me: “Yeah, I didn’t do anything special in 2016 other than call the PM thing a farce by June.”

That was because the fundamentals were degrading. Here’s proof of where I stood:

AMAT Chirps, B2B Ramps and Gold’s Fundamentals Erode -5.30.16

I distinctly remember the majority of the gold “community” chasing the silver explosion and pumping the herds long after that, into and well through the summer top.

And speaking of Semi Equipment (e.g. AMAT), back on March 28th in NFTRH 648 we noted on the summary page (while man and machine alike were running from Tech and Semi):

US Stock Market

Good Ship Lollipop sails on as most sectors trend up with big Tech taking a turn as the under-performer. The Semi sector is trying to undo its breakdown and within Semi, the Equipment stocks (e.g. LRCX, AMAT, etc.) are bulling again. That could well be a leader within Semi, which itself could lead Tech and the risk ‘on’ trades higher. Watch the Equipment guys. Meanwhile, there has been a shift to value and defensives (e.g. Staples) lately, and that is late-stage signaling.

Well, it too was not special. There was no chest thumping call. I observed a strategic probability and also personally positioned in NVDA, TSM & AMD (and kept holding Semi specialty materials play CCMP) per the Trade Log. It’s all part of the service.

But I sure am not going to tell others what to do (I actually consider it immoral) and therefore am not going to do anything special for those who want instructions issued by a Richard Russell wannabe (insert here ole’ Richard’s fateful “instructions” issued to the gold herds to buy miners and sell stocks right into a terrible bear phase for the former and big bull phase for the latter). *

Instructionless though it was (other than to “watch the Equipment guys”), the Semi info was valuable information ahead of time for those who care to act off of the information presented. Today SOX dings a new high after AMAT, LRCX and the Equipment guys showed the way (and NDX has taken back the SMA 50). I’ll bet a good chunk of players are still chasing the value rotation ** that the media have so well highlighted for patrons.

* Yes, it is tawdry to speak ill of the dead but I have disappointing personal history with Sir Richard the Good and well, I don’t think I spoke ill above. I think I spoke the truth. It wasn’t that he was wrong that is the problem. It is the word “instructions” issued to the flock. It grossed me out in real time and still does now. People tell me that Russell was actually good over the balance of his career and that may well be. But the market gawdz themselves should never be issuing “instructions” to others because nobody actually knows WTF is going to happen in the future.

** In a truly not special, not dynamic manner I am diversified with some of that stuff too.

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