[edit] Chart of DXY added below for visual effect. The world was anti-USD on the way up and as we’ve taken pains to note, it’ll be anti-USD on the way down. Target is 92.15 but wouldn’t it be poetic if USD tests its down trending SMA 200 (92.97) and risk ‘on’ markets test their up trending SMA 200s?
I see that Powell opened his yap about inflation and the markets knee-jerked. A knee-jerk reaction to inflammatory news and/or policymaker jawboning is rarely meaningful in and of itself. But as we’ve been noting in NFTRH, so many indexes and markets (US and global) have been due for a test of the SMA 200. Maybe this can be the kicker that helps that play out.
So I am proceeding generally like this…
- Cash was high and has been raised higher still as the US dollar continues its bounce. Recall the USD objective is 92.15 (currently at 91.56).
- US indexes are cracking the 50 day averages. This includes the all-important Semi index. The objectives – if the Powell jawbone is not the sole instigator – is a well deserved test of the rising 200 day moving averages. That is where I will plan to do some buying if all goes well.
- People who would short the markets can have at it if they want. But be nimble. Personally, I am not planning to do that in an uptrend because I am not a day trader.
- All gold, silver and gold stock analysis to date appears to be on track.
- My thought is that whatever is going on here the miners could be the first to exit the correction and as they often do, lead another up phase in the macro.
- The rally off of the low, whether it is in or more likely still to come, should be a strong one although if the inflation trades resume it could be fundamentally suspect and hence, just a trade for the miners.
- But… patience across the board. Especially in the inflation/reflation trades that are starting to crack this week. Copper, Lithium and others have been due for a break and Uncle Buck is obliging.
- I may consider buying back TLT but am leaning toward not doing it. I think the Powell smack could be a one day thing. But for the moment I’d rather manage risk w/ cash.
