Clarification on a friend’s recommendation [w/ edit]

[edit] Ha ha ha, a subscriber chimes in that in following my advice (and not my trades) he’s up 20% in 2020. Perfect! I made sure I took enough of 2019’s and early 2020’s profits in order to be able to withstand my dogged hold of a few remaining items, which I have been slooowly adding to.

Mind you, Mark at IKN is a friend I have never actually met or even talked to. But we go back to before the last major crisis (Armageddon ’08) and I consider him mi Amigo (and also my number #1 typo spotter) out here on the Interweb pipes. I know how he operates and he knows how I operate. We trade services and I value the IKN Weekly for its no nonsense deep dives into the covered miners and explorers every week. It’s real work, real fundy analysis, real site visits and real relationships formed, and that’s not often the case in newsletterland.

Yesterday in IKN 565 Mark so kindly recommended NFTRH to his subscribers as a “guide for this volatile market” while downplaying the value that his own service brings to his subscribers during this period (I strenuously disagree).

I will humbly accept the ‘guide in a volatile market’ label. I think NFTRH has been pretty damn good about that since well before the correction. Where I disagree is in his view that I have “been on fire recently nailing fliptrades all over the place”.

First of all, I have made two stinking short trades during this whole flash bear market. One shorting gold and one shorting SWKS. Both were profitable and both were covered too soon! Frankly, my plan was to let the first crack in the market happen and then short the first upside bounce setup. Well, I missed a fleeting setup, getting greedy hoping for a larger bounce and then it’s been cash for risk management ever since.

Second of all, to be on fire you have to be profitable. For the record I am -4% in 2020.

Third of all, Mark may have noticed 1-day trades in both MAG and SVM. Thing 1 was 30-something % and Thing 2 was 19%. They were each bought as bombed out items that I’d have just as soon tucked away for the longer-term but were sold due to my 1-day profit rule (take it!). They each went significantly higher than where I sold them, by the way. No genius here.

Finally, and most importantly, I am not a trader and NFTRH is most certainly not a trading service. I manage portfolios and the balance within them. I manage cash. I manage the market. Or sometimes the market manages me (as in being compelled to sell the two items noted above). I’ve taken a bunch of profits and limited a bunch of losses. But it is usually in service to good cash (and thus, risk) management.

I willingly bag hold what I bag hold (I have one gold explorer that was up near 80% and is at a loss now). I’ve held and added to a small core even though I was pretty sure they’d degrade my ‘performance’, were I considered a trader or trying to represent myself as such.

So insofar as the dude has his own excellent reputation to uphold, I want to make the record straight that while his reco is completely appreciated, I would not want anyone even considering NFTRH for the wrong reasons. The internet is filled with chart jockeys and trading coaches. But I am a top down market guy first and foremost. Get the macro right, deploy capital, live happily ever… well, whatever. It’s a new era but I am going to be the same me. NFTRH will adjust its views, scope and coverage as the markets dictate, but my personal orientations will be consistent.