As suspected, the various inflation/reflation trades were just bouncing in their downtrends as they have stopped within those downtrends after some pushed the limits. Commodities are chained to inflation expectations and those are still burrowing southward.
With the exception of a couple precious commodities (bullish Palladium and constructive Platinum) the complex continues to follow its 50 and 200 day moving averages along their trends. Industrial Metals had started to get interesting, but not interesting enough and the Metals & Mining ETF is locked in a similar downtrend to CRB, etc.
I have a smart man in my ear whispering “deflation… deflation…” and with the power of last year’s bond breakout hype I actually wonder if this is the cycle when the Continuum breaks down, and this time there may be no inflationary chair for asset markets to sit in when the music stops. That is something I’ll wonder until this chart breaks back above 2.2% and other more acute indicators of inflation start to register. It was a little hard sitting out the commodity bounce of 1st half of September. But my charts kept saying “don’t, just don’t”. Not yet, anyway.
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