Note the word bounce, which in TA means what it sounds like… a bounce within an existing trend. Note the trends here by the slopes of the moving averages.
I own this one, the Industrial Metals Mining & Services ETF. Looks a lot like the situation in Lumber, eh? Nice bounces within downtrends. What would change the ‘bounce’ label? The July high is the objective. If it takes it out it would be time to be at attention on the inflatables.
The Base Metals ETF is bouncing.
The US Materials sector is actually very interesting, taking out the SMA 50 and in a possible new uptrend. This is not commodities however, it is companies that often use commodities for pro-cyclical purposes. Could they lead the raw commodities? Maybe. I hold Materials company MTRN, which seems to be fairly well in line with XLB.
The Commodity ETF is having more trouble as it finds resistance at the SMA 50 within its firm downtrend.
Shifting to some outliers, the Uranium patch is waking up and even taking out the SMA 50. The downtrend is firm however, and given the force of the previous drop it’s not unusual that it is recovering so firmly. An arbiter here is the down-sloped SMA 200 and after that, the June high.
Just a few pictures of things bouncing as this thing also bounces. It’s all logical folks. But it comes down to what you believe… inflation? Deflation? Goldilocks? Armageddon? Or maybe a full frontal Von Misesian Crack Up Boom? Hey, I just pop charts up here and write words. The rest is up to you (speaking as a publicly accessible blogger, not a premium market report writer).
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