Okay, so resistance at 18.67 has been impaled and exceeded. Back May and June when I was buying SLV and noting so in NFTRH to the sound of crickets in the precious metals patch it was harder to be bullish. Now, in classic fashion it is easy… real easy.
So I had a ‘best’ target for the rally of 18.60 +/- and it was wrong. Silver futures now stand at 19.42, the silver price is obviously very overbought and the thing is bullish until otherwise indicated. Risk is much higher now than in May or June but as we’ve been noting in NFTRH, that’s what a bull market does, it pushes the risk profile.
Now, is it a real bull market? I think it is despite the similarity to 2016’s failed situation. The blue box is left on the weekly chart below from an NFTRH update in which we reviewed what the elusive 1st pullback in the silver price might look like. So far, it’s not happening. But it will.
Anyway, on June 20th we noted that silver was launching, not blowing off like some analysts were saying. The degree of overbought on this weekly chart shows the fury of said launch. Per NFTRH 566…
The weekly chart of silver shows a breakout through the next resistance in the low 17s. This as with HUI’s more minor resistance was not overly formidable. The resistance at 18.60 has been the best target for this run. Should silver break through it the next target is the 2016 high, which is the gateway to a cyclical bull market as gold’s 1378 level was.
So my “best” target is cooked and off we go to try to establish a bull market in silver. That has been the plan all along but so far at least, no blue box. I should have remembered how furiously silver moves when it gets on its horse.
I no longer hold SLV but I do hold several silver stocks (and silver/gold stocks). A blue box is coming and boy is it gonna be fun. This market is in motion and not just because silver is bullish (and blowing off its launch phase) but even more so because silver’s signals vs. gold when combined with a couple other indicators is central to our favored Q4 2019 and/or 2020 themes.
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