Semiconductor Index, a Half Decade Later

One upon a time we had a sector that was kicked to the curb and left as an also-ran. But in 2013, after gauging the coming of a positive cycle early in the year (using the Semi Equipment book-to-bill data) we then noted a big time breakout and a big time target (ha ha ha, I was only 700 points too conservative) based on the breakout.

Today the Semi sector is in a bone crushing contraction business-wise and industry analysts are busy plotting the bottom and next cyclical upturn. But today, here on June 12th entering the dead of summer the Semi cycle is still down and yet SOX is flying around near 1400.

And it’s in a reverse Symmetrical Triangle which, if it works opposite to a bullish Symmetrical Triangle would be bearish. That’s what TAs say, anyway. RSI is on an ugly negative divergence to the price highs of the last few months and MACD sucks too.

sox

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