The Yield Curve’s Unpleasant Macro Hint

As per the last post the curve did steepen today. Here’s the daily chart. Looks kinda similar to early October, doesn’t it? Okay, that is a negative for many markets, especially since it is now above the 200 day average as well as the 50.

yield curve

What’s worse is the weekly chart’s break above two moving averages that limited the Q1 2018 and Q4 2018 moves, which each attended bearish stock markets. The week is not over and it could be head faking, but as this stands now it is not at all pleasant signaling for the stock market. For gold it’s a different story and one day for inflation it could be a different story as well. But for we geeks who dearly want for the macro to make a real change, it’s a really good start.

yield curve

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