Amid the sick theater that has been the US political sphere and by extension, the stock market, I just tried to stay unbiased (in action, at least) and churn the indicators.
Here is when we put a negative scenario (not only for the stock market, but also for the ‘as good as it gets’ economy) on watch in an NFTRH update.
Here is when it started breaking down, per another NFTRH update.
And here was the most recent view from yesterday’s NFTRH 485, which also included a segment on the Semi sector and it’s cyclical implications.
There is much more to the story from a big picture cyclical standpoint. I make fun of the spray tanned stock market cheerleader (I am not unbiased, in thought) on Twitter, but this is serious business. I covered Semi related shorts today (too soon of course) on LRCX, BRKS and SOXL, but that is me, a faulty trader. But I am definitely in excitement and engagement mode now.
Me the macro market guy is trying to get things squared away with respect to the 3 Amigos (especially the long-term Treasury yield limiters), the appropriate time to seriously entertain the 4 Horsemen and what this all means for a nation of numb nuts who voted for a TV star cartoon character, put him in office, cheered the backwardation of America in some respects and then saw their newly opened eTrade accounts get not only a haircut, but a scalping into the brain matter.
From NFTRH 484 a little over a week ago (by way of Sentimentrader)…
Also in NFTRH 484, I added this chart to make a further point with all the subtlety of a sledge hammer.
All I can say is this is going to be interesting. And no, I am not particularly bearish. I think this event is addressing the true believers in the Trump fiscal reflation. What I am is working on determining where to be focused, because if we are on the cutting edge of a counter-cycle there will most definitely be places to focus and dopes with darts will no longer make money just by showing up.
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