WTIC has painted the greater commodity indexes with its bottoming pattern that we first identified last year. This month it is making a move to break above the 55 area resistance (the month is not closed yet). We originally noted that the pattern would measure to 75 if it resolves bullish.
Here are the milestones to that resolution…
- Finish November above the green dashed line.
- Deal with and take out the next resistance in the high 62s, and…
- Voila! You have your 75 (+/-) measurement.
This is certainly no prediction, but the pattern had an original measurement and so far it is constructively working on milestone #1. That’s also a ‘stop loss’ to the bullish view.
Personally, I’d not be surprised to see a hit of either of the (red) resistance areas and then failure in line with a ‘yields up in the near-term and down from the limiters’ scenario. The thing about this week’s squall of risk ‘off’ is that VIX and Sentiment gauges reset their complacent readings in quick time. Now, will oil continue as one of the recent risk ‘on’ leaders? The dashed line will tell.
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