It works like this; well before FOMC you make a post telling anyone who cares that you are re-hedging your gold miner exposure because you are concerned about the goons’ response to everything we already knew ahead of time that the table full of eggheads was going to do. You do this because GDX was rising to fill a gap on lame volume and because for some reason you’ve got a horseshoe up your ass lately and you are thinking more about keeping gains than making more gains.
Then you go out just after the Fed’s 2:00 snooze-a-thon, the hedge works again, you come home in after hours and you sell the majority of the DUST positions, still holding some while writing a post and trying to decide whether or not to off it all. You are trying not to be greedy and you are trying not to be fearful because after all, the market owes you nothing.
You see the GDX chart having bonked the support you’d just laid out in that post a few hours earlier and you say “thank you Market, I really think I’m gonna off the rest of DUST as well, after I finish this post” while realizing there could be some more grinding down, but the major FOMC day risk having been mitigated. You also realize you’re still holding USD long (UUP) and Euro short (EUO) and so are theoretically indirectly hedged there.
Then you see the post-FOMC spike in interest rates that happened even though the Fed had already told us of its QE withdrawal plans for October and you smell a rat. You also think about which sectors do well with spiking yields and which do not. So you think that maybe Financials are overdone short-term and Healthcare might be ready to pop again.
I guess you think a lot of things. Like I said I just got back in and I need to let this settle, and sort it out. Another good day though and what’s cool is that it’s not happening as a day trader; it’s happening as a portfolio balancer, which is my comfort zone.
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