In my experience this has been a really tough market to gauge, technically. One day it paints a beautiful chart and the next day it wrecks it. That’s one caveat. The other is that I am not a Gas head from a fundamental standpoint. But then again, this is NFTRH+, a technical entity that depends on you to cover those considerations if applicable and if interested.
One thing I can do is dig up the seasonal trends for NatGas and since 2009 it has shown a tendency to bottom in August or September and end September higher than it began. In several cases the price was firm through November. There have of course been some off years too.
As for the daily chart, Natty broke a bullish pattern’s neckline today and closed above the SMA 200. Up volume has exceeded down volume since July. MACD and RSI are positive (green).
The pattern measures to about 3.40, which is only about 10% upside. But leveraged funds like UGAZ could triple that. UGAZ was up 10% today alone and it might be worthwhile just putting this on radar in the event it drops back to test the breakout between 3.05 and 3.10. Personally, I am not going to lose sleep if I don’t catch it, but I do like to have ‘radar’ items on watch.
Of course, a target is not a stop sign and while traders would use the setup above, longer-term investors who’ve got a read on fundamentals might want to consider that the pattern is forming at a lateral support zone and as of today at least, has broken the price above a trend line. At the very least, I think this bears watching, either for traders or investors. A stop loss for traders is below 2.95 and for investors, below 2.75. We noted the trading target above. An investment target for upside is undetermined.
A reminder that chart based NFTRH+ updates are technical trade setup ideas, which may not be revisited as the buy, sell, stop parameters are already noted. They are meant as a starting point for further research if interested. I will not personally buy every item highlighted and will sometimes sell – without prior notice (because this takes time and resource away from NFTRH’s main functions) – any item that I do buy, below target, which is something I often do as a trader. Also please be aware that I am not a fundamental stock analyst. Due diligence is your responsibility.