Notes From the Rabbit Hole

Amateur Cyclist’s Chart of SPX, Updated

First off folks, I am slammed with the flu and am pounding Advil in order to function.  So no great thought processes will be coming from nftrh.com today.  But I’ll try to throw short posts up here when I can.

This chart was created some weeks ago using Stockcharts.com’s cycles tool.  We had projected that a top of some kind was due and sure enough the market corrected just a bit.  But on this monthly view you can see how non-corrective it has actually been.  Using charts in other time frames I think we may go lower in the short-term on this 12 month cycle (C12), but the 30 month cycle (C30) is still a few months out and that could be when a really important high or low ensues.

If it is a high it would probably signal a bear market.  If it is a low, it could be the doorway to the market’s manic up phase that finally sucks in the holdouts.  Or it could simply be a low in order to make a right shoulder (lower high) on a giant H&S.  I am keeping an open mind, and I am in awe of the C30’s track record at coinciding with major highs as well as the bear market low in 2002.  Of course I remind you that this is the product of a non-cycles guys, so consider it for what it’s worth.

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