Notes From the Rabbit Hole

Post-Jobs

I have been highlighting some positive trades lately, so in the interest of keeping it real, I am kicking myself for being partially hedged on the precious metals (although when considering the long-term gold holding it was a drop in the bucket) into the jobs report (loss booked). The reminder once again is that NFTRH is a genius free, guru free zone.  But at least we stay honest.  From yesterday’s update…

“For my part, I added a couple items on downside activity (explorer/developer PG.TO just above its MA 200 & royalty/streamer SLW at its MA 50s) but also still hold the DUST and JDST hedges, as noted in the NFTRH 397.  This hedging, which sometimes proves unsatisfying could last hours or days.”

Sometimes my conservatism helps greatly and at other times, not so much [insert various hindsight 20/20 bellyaching here].  Okay, so today’s gain is less than what it would have been.  Woulda, coulda, shoulda…

Moving on, a couple things I am looking at post-jobs…

The TIP-TLT ‘inflation expectations’ gauge continues to break down.

The gold-silver ratio has not broken down.

What does it mean?  Well for one thing, the Fed is not under any pressure right now to hawk it up.  We’ll have to carry the information forward and keep an ever so close eye on the Semis and see what develops over the summer.  The seeds are being sown however, for a big time ‘inflation trade’ in my opinion.

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