A snapshot of current daily technicals…
Precious Metals
GLD broke back above the first key support level. 120-122 will be a big test. A rise above 120 would put in a short-term higher high to go with the recent higher low. 114 is where key support begins.
SLV held critical support. A higher high to December would be very important for the bullish silver case. I would like to see 15.50 hold as support.
GDX broke through resistance around 20 yesterday. We noted in an update that some chop can be expected in the miners. Key support is around 18.50.
SIL is similar. Key support is at the SMA 50, currently 9.26.
GDX-GLD (HUI-Gold) ratio has made a nice burst upward to a logical resistance point. A higher high to November would be bullish. Expect some grind, meanwhile.
GLD-SPY has bounced but is still in a downtrend. A continuing negative for the gold stock sector.
GLD-USO is impulsive up. An obvious positive for the gold sector.
GLD-DBC is positive for the big picture bullish plan on the gold sector and for our macro view.
Commodities
DBC is flat out bearish. It is prone to bounce, but how long have I been writing that?
USO is flat out bearish. It is prone to bounce, but how long have I been writing that?
DBB remains bearish.
DBA has made a mini bounce to thick resistance.
Bonds
Junk to Quality bond spreads remain very bearish and a negative signal for the US stock market. Nominal TLT has been gaining the risk ‘OFF’ bid but looks over cooked on the short-term.
TIP-TLT shows diving inflation expectations. In other words, amp’d up deflationary expectations.
Stock Markets
SPY filled a gap and is at the first support level. It should not make a lower low to December in order to avoid an intermediate (at least) bearish signal.
QQQ made a lower high to November and must not make a lower low to December or it goes bearish.
IWM is at key short-term support and is seasonally significant. Resistance is at 118.
SMH made a lower low off of a double top. This is not a bullish picture for a ‘momentum leader’.
IBB is still at the channel bottom and the SMA 50. Okay for now for this fellow momo leader.
XLE is on the Bottom Retest Express, within an intermediate downtrend.
EWC is at support but overall not inspiring in the least. It is in an intermediate downtrend, just like XLE.
EZU is quite bearish.
EWP is very bearish.
EEM remains ugly.
FXI is bucking the global trend and while at a possible double top, is fine above 40.
DXJ is bearish below 49.
UUP is self-explanatory; bullish and over bought.
FXE is opposite Uncle Buck.
FXA is a commodity currency that looks like it can bounce.
FXC is a commodity currency that looks more concerning. Is this due to Canada’s concentration in energy relative to Australia?
FXY recalls a scene from Gladiator; Commodus: “You just won’t die…” Abe is Commodus and BoJ are the Praetorian Guard. Yen is bearish, but trying for all the world to bounce.
Bottom Line
Precious Metals: Still on the bounce and as noted in yesterday’s update, expect turbulence. Critical resistance and supports have been noted. Best case… the gold stocks grind out a new intermediate trend. We’ll continue to follow fundamentals along with technicals. Counter cyclical indications will be the best gold miner funda.
Commodities: Bearsh. Cyclical.
Bonds: Spreads continue to be a bearish signal for stocks. Inflation nowhere to be found. Long Bond getting over done to the upside and can cool off if stocks bounce.
Stock Markets: US stock indexes are looking increasingly bearish. But per recent posts/updates, a bounce can come from support after the post-FOMC gaps filled. Global stocks are Bearish and Bearisher… except for the China 25, which is maintaining a decent look.
My plan (subject to change w/ markets of course) is to unwind most if not all stock market long positions if the market bounces here. Then go back to my corner and patiently wait for what I think might be bearish opportunities.
