We had noted that the miners could bounce at any time. That time needs to be now for GDX to avoid lower lows. GDXJ, due to its modest out performance, has more room between current price and the June low.
GLD as we know has broken down from a Symmetrical Triangle. If it proves out, the target is 113. However, we are only talking about a bounce in the precious metals right now. So the December low would represent that opportunity, if that is what is in the cards (off of absolutely terrible sentiment). Also 113 is not a given, it is a theoretical target off of a pattern. So let’s keep perspective on that too.
SLV has no such support, having lost it on its 4th test. But RSI is so over sold that a bounce can be sprung at any time.
The Emerging Markets bear stance continues to work, after yesterday’s hard counter trend bounce to test the breakdown.
US markets have had deteriorating internals as we have been noting over the last couple of weeks. Today, SPY made a lower low while QQQ did not. Neither have even dropped below their SMA 50’s. So is this market broken? Not by a long shot. But there is ongoing negativity from leading indicators.
If the precious metals are going to bounce, the time is now to do it. Below the December lows puts another bearish stake to the gold stocks’ heart. That same applies below the December low for gold. Silver as we know is already busted, but deeply over sold.
Emerging Markets remain weak and also Europe is getting more bearish looking. US markets have been losing internal sponsorship but have not broken down. If SPY/SPX maintains a lower to the September low to close the week and the Russell 2000 continues down out of its triangle, things could get nasty in the US markets as well.
Of course, stock market weakness would be one component of a positive precious metals stance. But it is early times and if they do bounce (not a given yet, though they’ve stabilized for the moment) we should continue to call it only that (a bounce/counter trend rally) pending incoming information. i.e. a ‘trade’ for those who would participate.