Monthly Archives: May 2014

Notable Public Posts

A New Hawk at the Fed?

Well, Loretta Mester looks a little hawkish anyway. She also looks a little like... To which I'd refer back to my first public article ever written back in the quaint…

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May 30, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; HUI Daily Chart & More

This chart shows HUI dropping through the 205 parameter today.  While it is technically at support (and getting sufficiently over sold) as you know, without fundamental incentive, I am not near the view I had in Q4 2008 (buy!).  No way, no how.  Not without a fundamental case that is engaged and measurable.  This update then is simply a technical status check on HUI for those interested.

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May 28, 2014
Notable Public Posts

“Let’s Be Honest” –Andrew Huszar

“The real issue is that the Fed has expanded its tool kit so dramatically…”  –Andrew Huszar

In line with our theme of outlandish and immoral (in my opinion) Fed policy a former Fed official calls QE a backdoor bailout of Wall Street, which anyone with two functioning brain cells knows to be the case.  The Andrew Huszar Op/Ed (Wall Street Journal) Confessions of a Quantitative Easer is I suppose old news, but it illustrates what we have been hammering on for so long now; that Fed policy is serving to pump the stock market and pump up the wallets of asset owners.

QE gets about 10 times the notoriety of ZIRP, but I’ll still maintain that it is this evil tool in the Fed’s ‘tool kit’ that is the main and continuing blight on the system as it not only rewards asset owners and speculators, but punishes those least able to speculate due to limited funds.

dow.tbill

Please review this chart again and behold the rigged market.  Anyone arguing that the bull market in US stocks is normal is being intellectually dishonest.  Yet like agent Mulder I want to believe in the healthy bull story*, but I have to believe the data that has drawn the lines on the chart above.

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May 28, 2014
Notable Public Posts

Stock Market: When Bad is Good & Good is Bad

Many people would consider a drop in the S&P 500 to the 1550-1600 area to be a bad thing.  But if the bull is real, and if a secular bull market truly has been created out of manipulation of the T bond market (QE’s bond buying and ZIRP’s 0% rates) then a pullback to test that zone would be normal, would it not?  It would feel bad but in reality a successful test of the big breakout would launch the grand new bull.  SPX has to drop down to test support sooner or later, doesn’t it?

spx

Well no, it doesn’t because the other side of the coin in the post’s title is ‘When Good is Bad’, meaning that an upside blow off in markets – if that is what is fomenting – would be very bad, as in ‘Silver 2011’ bad, for the stock market with a successful test of support unlikely.  That is because a manic blow off would be a terminal event.

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May 23, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Gold, Silver & Miners – Daily Parameters

As has been the case often lately, the precious metals are positive in pre-US open.  These have tended to be fleeting positive vibes, but we should keep the technical parameters in view nonetheless because a) you don’t want to buy (or at least hold) a sucker bounce and b) just maybe the forces of right and good ;-) will one day break out of this funk.  So we should stay tuned up on what constitutes bull and bear in the precious metals.

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May 22, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; More Thoughts on the Bull Case

It is a mixed messages market.  With all the bearish indicators, we have had some fairly severe downside in several momentum related indexes.  This begs the question ‘was that it?’ with regard to ‘the correction’?

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May 21, 2014
Notable Public Posts

Giving Bears Pause

We have talked about what is negative for the US stock market.  From the signal in the banks vs. S&P 500 to a young uptrend in long-term T bonds vs. the S&P 500.  Here is the 2011-2014 market leading BKX-SPX in breakdown mode.

bkx.spx

Throw in a bearish divergence in the Equity Put/Call ratio, an elevated Gold-Silver ratio right at resistance and Junk bond vs. Treasury/Investment Grade and the signs of a bearish market are not only there, they have manifested in some pretty good downside in the growth and momentum areas.

But aside from the Dow and Tranny already noted, there are other things that bears should pay attention to, starting as we often do with the Semiconductor index.

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May 20, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates / NFTRH+

NFTRH; Some Charts After Today’s Bull

Today was quite impressive for the bulls.  A public post at the site showed the SOX coming right to its trend line.  I day traded LSCC for a good profit today and would you believe I actually had to remind myself to take the profit?  Seeing the SOX at the trend line helped get me going, after letting some profits turn to losses by not being decisive in this market.

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May 12, 2014